| Malibu Country Last Week | Week Two Drops |
| 2.3 (11/2/2012, 2.0 Last Man lead-in) | -13% (Last Man Standing, 10/18/11) -19% (median week two for 20 new shows this fall) |
One might expect that a show being sampled largely because of a name might be set up for a crash in week two. However, Last Man Standing is probably as close an analog as anything on TV recently, and it only dropped 13% despite having more competition in week two. If Reba takes that same drop, she hits an even 2.0. Keep in mind that Last Man had a one-hour premiere; in the 8:00 half-hour it was down just 9% in week two. Take that size drop and Malibu hits a 2.1. Plus, the HUT levels and many of the shows in the 8:00 hour have gotten a bump in this first week post-daylight saving time. I'm leaning toward 2.0, but there are rumors circulating that I have been too pessimistic lately.
Over/Under: 2.05.
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8 comments:
Was way off the mark on this one last week but I'm going under again.
This is really hard to say because I would say 2.0-2.1, so you actually are making me choose here. I will go with a 2.0, but really don't know. I think Last Man Standing will go down big, I think the post-premiere negative reaction is real. It remains to be seen how much that brings down malibu. Again, i say that having last man leading the hour and not the other way around is a mistake
That would be under, obviously
Under. 2.0 sounds right.
Under 2.0
Over.
Just under at 2.0. Still strong.
Under.
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