| Last Man Standing Premiere/Avg/Finale |
| 3.6 premiere (Tuesday 10/11/11) 2.42 average (Tuesdays 8/7c) 1.7 finale (Tuesday 5/8/12) |
One thing in Malibu Country's favor is that it premieres the night after one of its best possible opportunities for promotion: The CMA Awards. I didn't watch, but I'm sure ABC worked very hard to create awareness about the show during that event, which was certainly heavily watched by Reba's fanbase. One thing working against it is that Last Man Standing was a fading show late last season, and it'd probably be a solid win if it could come back at the low end of last season's post-DST Tuesday ratings. I feel confident that Reba is enough of a draw that Malibu should build in the demo from Last Man on premiere night, and quite possibly by a significant amount. But if Last Man goes super low it could limit Malibu's potential.
Over/Under for Malibu Country: 1.65.
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14 comments:
Over
I don't feel like there's enough hype here to get a good demo. I'm going under.
If Tim Allen's retro-feeling LMS could pull that high of a premiere number, I think Reba could pull almost-equivalent-for-Friday numbers. Plus ABC has been promoting this pairing more heavily than I expected. The only wildcard will be the last-minute relief concert for Hurricane Sandy on NBC. Stand Up For Cancer pulled weak ratings across all the networks in September, which let Top Model pop, but pool them together and it was over a 2.0.
Over.
Over- 1.8 (LMS will get a 1.5)
Over. If Mockingbird Lane can get 1.5 despite last-minute scheduling and minimal promotion then Malibu Country should be able to beat it, even if only as a one-time thing.
Don't have a good feeling about this one. Under.
Over. I still think that there are a lot of things wrong with this. I like the idea of TGIF in theory, were ABC to be in better shape. Right now, those comedies are needed on Tuesday to counterprogram against the young-skewing comedies on Fox and NBC. The young comedies that are there (my beloved happy endings) should be at wednesday at 10 (blablabla for the whole comedies at 10 don't work... guess what, they don't work there either). Moving on... if they were to be on friday, they should be at 9 and not messing up with Shark Tank success, while enjoying a lead-in themselves. Moving on... Reba should lead the hour as she should be stronger than Tim Allen. So many things wrong.
Over, but not much over
Over. People love Reber.
Over.
Just over I think.
I'm going over. I think there's going to be a couple of shockers here.
LMS: 1.7
MC: 1.9
Sharks: 2.2
That should be fairly catastrophic to Undercover Boss (1.7) and Kitchen Nightmares (0.8).
Networks haven't had comedies on Friday since 2009, and to find even a moderately successful one you have to go back to 2005. I don't know if this will pay off, but a 1.7 at 8:30 doesn't seem likely. Under
Over.
Just a wishful thinking, no logical reason behind it.
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