The Question, Wednesday 10/17/12: Will Modern Family Viewers Say Welcome to Suburgatory?

Tonight, Suburgatory becomes the fifth different show to regularly lead out of Modern Family. But it's the first show to bring a truly established audience to this situation, as Suburgatory had a pretty solid debut season airing between The Middle and Modern. The only other show that had aired at all before getting this slot, Happy Endings, had a 56% year-to-year bounce in its post-Modern slot. I'm not expecting that much from Suburgatory, which is coming from a much better situation, but it should have a good shot to benefit. Will Modern Family viewers say, "Welcome" to Suburgatory? That's The Question for Wednesday, October 17, 2012.

Suburgatory Premiere/Avg/Finale	Other Modern Family Lead-outs
3.3/2.60/1.8 (2011-12) 2.52 average lead-in	4.4/2.93/2.8 (Cougar Town, 2009-10) 3.4/2.58/2.0 (Cougar Town, 2010-11) 3.7/2.18/1.6 (Mr. Sunshine, 2010-11) 3.1/2.71/1.7 (Happy Endings, 2011-12) 2.9/2.34/2.4 (Apartment 23, 2011-12) 3.2 (The Neighbors, 9/26/12) (5.5 MF)

To me, the most relevant two data points are the last two fall premieres after Modern Family, last year's Happy Endings (3.1) and The Neighbors (3.2) from a few weeks ago. Tonight's Modern Family will probably not be as strong as the 5.7 that led into Happy Endings or the 5.5 that led into The Neighbors. Modern Family had a 4.8 and 4.9 last week and should be in that vicinity again. But I also feel that last season showed us Suburgatory is a Truly stronger show than either of those two. The Neighbors has dropped more relative to The Middle than Suburgatory ever did. So if The Middle and Modern Family could come back within 10% year-to-year, Suburgatory should be able to get pretty close to even since it's got a better timeslot now.

Over/Under: 3.15.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.