A few years ago, the clash between two series premieres was fairly common. There were five of them in the fall of 2010! But the networks have shied away from such showdowns in the last couple years; the weak new show results in 2010 probably had something to do with it. There was only one such battle in 2011, and tonight marks the only one of 2012, at 10/9c between ABC's Nashville and NBC's Chicago Fire. (And even this one probably only happens because last week's debate screwed with scheduling.) The shows' lead-ins would suggest one show has a big situational advantage. So is Nashville vs. Chicago Fire much of a rivalry? That's The Question for Wednesday, October 10, 2012.
| Networks' Drama Premieres | Shows' Lead-ins on September 26 |
| 4.1 (Revolution, 9/17/12, 5.1 Voice lead-in) 2.2 (Last Resort, 9/27/12, local lead-in) 2.1 (666 Park Ave, 9/30/12, 3.0 Revenge) | 5.5 (Modern Family half-hour premiere) 2.1 (Law and Order: SVU 2-hr premiere) |
Last time I did a spread between two drama premieres, I said Revolution would beat The Mob Doctor by 1.2. I put the favorite in the 3.0 range, maybe a bit higher, and I put the underdog in a struggle to hit 2.0. I was right that Revolution would win easily, but I way underestimated both Revolution's ceiling and the extent to which Mob Doc would flop. (It ended up 4.1 to 1.5.) Yet that 1.2 spread and those favorite/underdog numbers feel about right again. The lead-in discrepancy should be worth at least a half point, and that's being conservative. I also believe Nashville just looks a lot better in promos, and the reviews are drastically more positive. (85 to 46 on Metacritic.) But I really doubt we're gonna see a 2.6-point kind of differential like there was on September 17 because Nashville probably does not have as high a ceiling as Revolution did.
Spread: Nashville beats Chicago Fire by 1.2 points.
(Reply with "Nashville" if you think Nashville beats Chicago Fire by more than 1.2 points. Reply with "Chicago Fire" if you think Nashville beats Chicago Fire by less than 1.2 points or if you think Chicago Fire beats/ties Nashville.)
No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.
18 comments:
Chicago Fire
Something like 3.0 to 2.0, for Nashville of course.
Most shows nowadays are at between 2 and 3 in premiere, though there were some high (Revolution ) or low (Mob Doctor / Made in Jersey) rated premieres. Anyway, I don't see Chicago Fire bombing right out of the gate, though Nashville will have great lead-in and might ruin my prediction.
I'm giving it to Nashville. Chicago Fire could manage a 2.0, hold all of the SVU lead-in but I don't see it doing any better. The Modern Family lead-in won't be as big as last year but I think Nashville should start on par with Revenge.
Nashville.
Nashville. It would probably happen even if it wasn't led in by Modern Family, but there's no way Chicago Fire makes it from SVU. The drop at the half will sink it.
I'll go with Nashville at 3.4 to Chicago Fire's 2.1. I'm expecting Modern Family to pull another 5.0+, and SVU will be lucky to get more than 2.0, so ABC will be slightly disappointed, while NBC will be pleasantly surprised. Those seem to be the overarching themes of this fall.
I'm going with Nashville on this, lead-in is too strong.
Nashville 3.8
Chicago Fire 2.1
Nashville, its 3.0 trumping Chicago Fire's 1.5.
Nashville. It's got a much better lead-in and it's arguably where ABC put most of their ad dollars this season.
Nashville.
Nashville- 3.3
Chicago Fire- 1.9
Chicago Fire.
Revenge eaked a 3.3 out of a 6.2 Modern Family last year. Being very generous, I don't see Nashville going higher than 3.0 (unless it is some break out hit) based on that. Chicago Fire on the other hand I can't see debuting less than a 1.8 whilst realistically expecting a 2.0-2.2 based on the SVU season premiere double episode where it rose in the second hour.
Nashville
Firstly, if we were to say push, would we get any credit?
Although if arm were twisted, I'd say Nashville, and all the weight on that's gonna be on Chicago Fire being an epic fail in the Made In Jersey range (which I think is possible because I got a lot of warning flags off the advertising).
Less. I see Chicago Fire breaking a 1.9 and I don't see Nashville doing more than a 3.0, as good as the Modern Family lead in is. So, Chicago Fire is my answer
You can push if you want, but it should be pretty clear by now that I am far too awful at predictions for that to be a good option. Perhaps I could come up with some kind of big bonus for pushing and winning...
Ok, then. But as a side note, for the purposes of this, Nashville is my prediction...
Chicago Fire.
nashville, its not that I expect nashville to do spectactullary (I think high to mid 2's) I just expect chaigo fire to flop, as much as I love SVU, honestly I don't see it doing better than a 1.8, and chiacgo fire will probably bleed that
I thought that Chicago Fire has the potential to turn into a
great series, but unfortunately I will have to agree with the majority that Nashville is better. I
think if Chicago Fire had a different timeslot, it would see a lot more
success. It just doesn’t have the strength to compete with an already
critically acclaimed show like Nashville
(not to mention the hit American Horror Story that is about to start up). I’m
just lucky that my Hopper DVR can record up to six things, so schedule conflicts
aren’t an issue for me. If I had to choose though, I think Nashville stands out above the rest; that
seems to be the popular opinion not only in these comments but around my office
at DISH too, so we’ll see how long Chicago Fire will last!
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