A few years ago, the clash between two series premieres was fairly common. There were five of them in the fall of 2010! But the networks have shied away from such showdowns in the last couple years; the weak new show results in 2010 probably had something to do with it. There was only one such battle in 2011, and tonight marks the only one of 2012, at 10/9c between ABC's Nashville and NBC's Chicago Fire. (And even this one probably only happens because last week's debate screwed with scheduling.) The shows' lead-ins would suggest one show has a big situational advantage. So is Nashville vs. Chicago Fire much of a rivalry? That's The Question for Wednesday, October 10, 2012.
| Networks' Drama Premieres | Shows' Lead-ins on September 26 |
| 4.1 (Revolution, 9/17/12, 5.1 Voice lead-in) 2.2 (Last Resort, 9/27/12, local lead-in) 2.1 (666 Park Ave, 9/30/12, 3.0 Revenge) | 5.5 (Modern Family half-hour premiere) 2.1 (Law and Order: SVU 2-hr premiere) |
Last time I did a spread between two drama premieres, I said Revolution would beat The Mob Doctor by 1.2. I put the favorite in the 3.0 range, maybe a bit higher, and I put the underdog in a struggle to hit 2.0. I was right that Revolution would win easily, but I way underestimated both Revolution's ceiling and the extent to which Mob Doc would flop. (It ended up 4.1 to 1.5.) Yet that 1.2 spread and those favorite/underdog numbers feel about right again. The lead-in discrepancy should be worth at least a half point, and that's being conservative. I also believe Nashville just looks a lot better in promos, and the reviews are drastically more positive. (85 to 46 on Metacritic.) But I really doubt we're gonna see a 2.6-point kind of differential like there was on September 17 because Nashville probably does not have as high a ceiling as Revolution did.
Spread: Nashville beats Chicago Fire by 1.2 points.
(Reply with "Nashville" if you think Nashville beats Chicago Fire by more than 1.2 points. Reply with "Chicago Fire" if you think Nashville beats Chicago Fire by less than 1.2 points or if you think Chicago Fire beats/ties Nashville.)
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