The Question, Tuesday 10/9/12: Will Any of Three Week Three Newbies Drop By 0.3?

If there was one day where there may have been a shot for a broadcast entertainment programming renaissance, I'd have said Tuesday. The incumbents don't provide a ton of competition, it's one of the very few nights without football in the fall, and the new shows on this evening were well-reviewed. Instead, the new offerings on Fox and CBS have pretty much limped out of the gate. Ben and Kate and The Mindy Project may have gotten full season orders, but both dropped by a half point in week two and are now sub-2.0. Ancient-skewing Vegas also shed a half point and continues to drop big at the half, and yet it too is likely to get picked up because of the big names and the CBS problems elsewhere. So they'll have some time, but if there's any long-term promise, we need to see if they can actually settle down at somewhat workable levels. Will any of the three week three newbies drop by 0.3 more? That's The Question for Tuesday, October 9, 2012.

Fox Tuesdays This Season (Week 1 -> 2)	CBS Tuesdays This Season (Week 1 -> 2)
2.8 -> 1.7 (New Girl -> Raising Hope) 2.1 -> 1.6 (Ben and Kate) 2.8 -> 2.8 (New Girl) 2.4 -> 1.9 (The Mindy Project)	4.1 -> 3.7 (NCIS) 3.4 -> 3.1 (NCIS: Los Angeles) 2.5 -> 2.0 (Vegas)

The other time that I did one like this was on premiere Wednesday. This time, like that time, I wouldn't pick any of these three candidates to get past the mark individually. All these ratings are low enough that a 0.3 drop means another 15-20%, which is pretty awful for a week three. But I'd still say there's a pretty decent shot that I'm going to be wrong at least once. Maybe Raising Hope takes a post-premiere drop to 1.5 and B&K follows it down and then loses another tick on its own? Maybe New Girl was lucky to hold its 2.8 last week and drops to 2.5ish this week, then Mindy drops the same amount? Maybe continued big drops at the half for Vegas suggest a second whammy is coming?

Over/Under: -0.25 for worst week-to-week move out of Ben & Kate/The Mindy Project/Vegas. ("Over" if you think none of the three shows drops by 0.3 or more. "Under" if you think at least one drops by 0.3 or more.)

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