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Tuesday, October 23, 2012

The Question, Tuesday 10/23/12: Do We Trust the Ratings to Have a Happy Ending?


Happy Endings and Don't Trust the B- in Apartment 23 both aired their 2011-12 runs after the biggest scripted show on TV, Modern Family. But they're not in Kansas anymore; tonight they'll be asked to find a pulse on a very weak ABC night vs. brutal competition. Do we trust the ratings to have a happy ending? That's The Question for Tuesday, October 23, 2012.

Happy Endings in 2011-12 Apartment 23 in 2011-12
3.1 premiere (9/28/11, 5.7 Modern lead-in)
2.71 average (4.60 average lead-in)
1.7 finale (1.8 Modern (R) lead-in)
averaged 1.85 in spring 2012 after Modern repeats (which averaged 2.03)
2.9 premiere (4/11/12, 4.2 Modern lead-in)
2.34 average (3.86 average lead-in)
2.4 finale (4.1 Modern lead-in)
scored a 2.0 in week three after Modern repeat

As I said in the fall preview, there is really no reason to believe that this will work. Happy Endings faces a show that skews as similarly as probably anything in primetime, New Girl, and then Apartment 23 has to deal with a special The X Factor. There are also not-total-failure comedies airing on NBC. The other ABC shows that sandwich this block (Dancing with the Stars and Private Practice) don't seem compatible at all. I could see them getting near a 2.0 just because it's a premiere night, they've been really heavily promoted in the circles I frequent, and maybe there's a chance they were incompatible enough with Modern Family that they have an audience that'll follow them away from that show. I could also see low 1's right out of the gate; most of the lineups that looked bad before the season have ended up even worse than they looked. So I'm going right in the middle.

Over/Under: 3.25 for Happy Endings rating PLUS Apartment 23 rating.

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