The Question, Thursday 10/11/12: Ratings Beauty or Ratings Beast?

One night after Arrow brought some much-needed promising news to the CW, the network dips right back into the series premiere pool with new The Vampire Diaries lead-out Beauty and the Beast. The reviews have been putrid (35 Metacritic as of this writing), and the CW still hasn't been able to get anything to stick in the post-TVD slot. But the TVD lead-in has helped previous occupants to at least open somewhat respectably, and the big four simulcasting a debate tonight should be an advantage competition-wise. Is this show a ratings beauty or a ratings beast? That's The Question for Thursday, October 11, 2012.

Recent CW Drama Series Premieres	This Season's CW Premieres
1.2 (Hellcats, 9/8/10) 1.4 (Nikita, 9/9/10) (TVD 1.6) 1.2 (Ringer, 9/13/11) 1.3 (The Secret Circle, 9/15/11) (TVD 1.5) 0.8 (Hart of Dixie, 9/26/11) 1.3 (Arrow, 10/10/12) (preliminary)	0.7 (Hart of Dixie, 10/2/12) 0.8 (Supernatural, 10/3/12) 0.4 (90210, 10/8/12) 0.4 (Gossip Girl, 10/8/12) 1.3 (Arrow, 10/10/12) (preliminary)

The Vampire Diaries lead-outs (in bold) have historically done a little better than the non-TVD lead-outs on premiere night. I don't expect that streak to continue with BatB and Arrow, but I do see it holding a pretty decent chunk of the TVD audience as an alternative to the simulcast vice presidential debate on the big four. A big part of this question is where TVD premieres; it began with a 1.5 and ended with a 1.2 last season. So it'll probably be somewhere in the low 1's.

Over/Under: 0.95.

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