| The Walking Dead Premieres/Avgs/Fins | Other Cable Serial Season Premieres |
| 2.7/2.65/3.0 (Fall 2010) 3.8/3.41/3.5 (Fall 2011) 4.2/3.90/4.7 (Spring 2012) | 0.6 -> 0.7 -> 0.9 -> 1.1 -> 1.5 (Breaking Bad) ??? -> 0.8 -> 0.9 -> 0.9 -> 1.2 (Mad Men) 0.7 -> 2.0 -> 2.9 -> 3.0 -> 2.9 (True Blood) 1.3 -> 2.3 -> 2.1 -> 2.5 -> 2.8 (Sons of Anarchy) |
As I said in a True Blood War of 18-49 Update this summer, there are two kinds of "hot" cable serials these days: the True Blood type, which hit phenomenon status relatively early and has somehow stayed there even as the critics bail, and then all the others listed above, which have managed to continue growing deep into their runs. I'm a big fan of The Walking Dead, but there's got to be a point at which it just can't possibly keep becoming even more of a phenomenon. I say we're about there, but then I thought we were about there coming into last spring as well. I can't rule out the show going even farther beyond the 4.7 from the spring finale, because most of the premieres have gone well above the prior finale. But facing football and baseball may be a bit of a factor. I say the smart money is on this being the year the show levels off, True Blood-style. The smart money, however, has not been making much money on this show.
Over/Under: 4.6.
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11 comments:
Under, surely it's got to come down/level off somewhere and none of the dramas that still keep going are quite THIS big. Up on the last premiere but down from the finale.
Over. I have full faith that the show will gain with the buzz it's had since the finale, people checking out the show through word of mouth and the highly-anticipated storylines of the prison and Michonne and the Governer will factor into more people watching. The show is still in its early days and will continue to grow for its third year.
Man. The smart money's probably on under, but I'm talking about JUST over at 4.7.
Over.
Over- Cable is picking up steam.
I love this show so freaking much, I will go with a lot of wishfull thinking and over. It's quite a risky bet and probably wrong, but it is possible and I just want to see it keeping up with the monster phenomenum it is!
Ugho, this is a hard one. Seriously. I'm writing all this crap just to confirm to myself which way I wanna go.
But then again, I think there's a little bit of momentum to be had yet, and maybe there's just a bit of a romance to the idea of a cable drama hitting a 5. So I'm going Over.
Under. AMC's dispute with Dish (~10% of subscribers) coupled with increased DVR usage should cause ratings to drop slightly. I also believe its close to the limits of its potential audience, since it's already the most popular drama on television.
Over. I don't see any reason for its momentum to slow down, and premiering near Halloween will help attract an audience.
I just heard about a dispute with DISH Network. Therefore, I AM CHANGING MY PREDICTION to UNDER (4.4).
I just heard of the dish dispute. I am changing it to under. It should still beat the season 2 premiere, but not the season 2 finale.
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