CBS True Power Rankings, October 2012

The much-beloved True Power Rankings are BACK. I line up every entertainment program in broadcast primetime by network/category using my timeslot metric True2, offering my take on the ratings strength of the shows.

Two changes of note this year. First: next week, I will create a separate page for each network, and I will update those every week when I do all the SpotVault updates. This will keep the numbers linked on the right sidebar much more up to date than last year. But the full-fledged versions in which I actually write stuff will be considerably less frequent. The current plan is to do those four times: now (beginning of November sweeps), early January (beginning of midseason), late February (end of February sweeps) and late April (beginning of May sweeps/pre-upfront). Subject to change!

Second change: I'm trying yet another new "formula" for the averages below. The A18-49 and True2 averages now average the last third of the season's episodes to date, rounded up. This seems like a decent way to quickly remove the value of inflated series premieres and give a show a larger sample if it's aired a larger number of episodes. I list how many episodes have aired (through the last full week, ending October 21) and how many of those are counted in the averages for each show.

Other October True Power Rankings: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW

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CBS Comedies		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
1	The Big Bang Theory	4.30	4.65	2	4
2	2 Broke Girls	3.00	3.40	2	4
3	Two and a Half Men	2.99	3.75	2	4
4	How I Met Your Mother	2.69	3.15	2	4
5	Mike and Molly	2.58	2.90	2	4
6	Partners	1.66	2.00	2	4

Immediately after the upfronts, I was one of the very few people in the world that eviscerated the CBS schedule. Now, most of their scripted shows are doing worse than almost anyone expected. So am I some kind of genius? I think I was right on some things, especially on giving less-than-elite lead-ins to the new shows.  But they were likely right about my #1 complaint, which was not expanding to a fourth comedy hour. I insist that, in a vacuum, it was a no-brainer. But if their number one comedy in development was freakin' Partners, the four-hour arrangement probably would've been a shaky situation. It definitely required at least one competent new show to be feasible; I just assumed they would have that one show because they almost always do. It seems the mistake on CBS' part, at least on the comedy front, was more in following up that amazing year of comedy with a development slate led by Partners, not so much in scheduling.

While How I Met Your Mother was a bit inflated by all the 8:00 bonuses in the first edition of this number last year, now I think its numbers should probably be a bit higher; it gets the misfortune of facing zero additional competition from Monday Night Football while everybody else on Monday faces the full game rating. I probably need to come up with some way to smooth out the Monday competition thing somewhat. I feel like Mother should be closer to the 2BG/Men vicinity.

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CBS Dramas		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
The Elite
1	NCIS	3.13	3.40	1	3
2	Criminal Minds	2.64	3.10	1	3
3	Person of Interest	2.48	2.80	1	3
4	NCIS: Los Angeles	2.32	3.00	1	3

Long way to go, but it seems these shows don't have anything to worry about. I would argue they've all been disappointments ratings-wise, but the whole network is a disappointment ratings-wise, so it's kind of a wash for all parties. NCIS: LA is a much weaker show than its raw numbers suggest, but that doesn't really matter because it still seems Truly stronger than most of the shows behind it.

The Second Tier
5	Elementary	2.23	2.30	1	3
6	CSI	1.94	2.30	1	3
7	Hawaii Five-0	1.91	2.00	2	4
8	The Mentalist	1.76	1.80	2	4

Since it hasn't yet steadied, Elementary certainly belongs more in this tier than in the above one. If it has a Vegas-esque week four tonight, it may not even belong in this one. CSI and Five-0 are pretty underwhelming, but so is everything on CBS, so they appear to be OK on the totem pole at the moment.

Then there's The Mentalist. Most of the Sunday 10:00 shows with the overrun have done a couple ticks worse when they have a late start time. But The Mentalist is downright chameleonic; maybe the even later late afternoon NFL start times are hurting more than usual? Anyway, when it starts on time, I would argue it has been legitimately pretty impressive, hitting a 2.1 (and over a 2.00 True2) both times and building by a significant amount from The Good Wife. When it has an overrun, it's a mid-1's show (sub-1.50 True2!) that drops from The Good Wife. I would think that the start-on-time version is the "real" The Mentalist, but we'll have to see if it can survive all this tumult and hit that 10:00 level consistently going forward and once football is gone. Can't rule out it joining the bubble tier.

The Bubble
9	Vegas	1.72	2.00	1	3
10	The Good Wife	1.59	1.80	2	4
11	Blue Bloods	1.55	1.35	2	4
12	CSI: NY	1.54	1.30	2	4

Next week's update will include the big week four hit to Vegas, which will push it right into the middle of this pack, and maybe even below. I don't have much else to say except that barring significant numbers separation I think CBS would favor Blue Bloods (nearing syndication) and The Good Wife (prestige). Vegas is still trending down, and CSI: NY just barely scraped its way into this season and was probably first on the block in CBS' mind coming into the season.

The Dunzo
13	Made in Jersey	0.96	0.80	1	2

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CBS Unscripted		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
1	Survivor Fall	2.58	2.80	2	5
2	The Amazing Race Fall	1.93	2.60	2	4
3	60 Minutes	1.85	2.80	2	4
4	48 Hours	1.22	1.00	2	4

As I said with the ABC Sunday shows, I think The Amazing Race is a little deflated here, but it should still probably be a few notches weaker than Survivor.