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Friday, September 28, 2012

The Question, Thursday 9/27/12: How Much Power in the CBS Power Hours?


Note: Another The Question on Last Resort going up at 2:30 ET, so stay tuned!

The CBS promo monkeys are using my "Power Hour" phrase for The Big Bang Theory / Two and a Half Men block. (I'm sure they got the idea from me!) But the reality is that CBS has potential for Thursday power that extends well beyond the first hour. Person of Interest is a sophomore drama with a likely much better lead-in, and Elementary seems like one of the better bets among the fall 2012 new crop. And in the second half of the 2011-12 season, this CBS lineup was one of the few genuinely hot evenings on all of TV. It's all pointing in CBS' direction; how much power in the CBS power hours? That's The Question for Thursday, September 27, 2012.

The Big Bang Theory (Prem/Avg/Finale) Two and a Half Men (Prem/Avg/Finale)
4.9/4.97/4.4 (+24% year-to-year) 10.7/4.96/3.9 (+11%)
Person of Interest (Prem/Avg/Finale) 8:30 and 10:00 Occupants
3.1/2.87/2.5 4.1/3.30/2.6 (Rob)
3.6/2.91/2.1 (Rules of Engagement) (+1%)
2.8/2.61/2.5 (The Mentalist) (-10%)

The best CBS did on Thursday night during the 2011-12 season was a 3.6, which they achieved on several occasions (premiere night with an hourlong TBBT and a couple times during the winter). They also hit a 3.5 a few times. It seems pretty plausible to me that they could beat that tonight if only because of upgrades at 8:30 and (maybe) at 10:00. Anything well beyond a 4.0 from Two and a Half Men would singlehandedly lift the lineup by at least a tick above its higher-end performances last season. And a reasonably strong premiere rating from Elementary could lift the lineup by another tick or so. That puts us at a 3.8ish if you simply assume The Big Bang Theory and POI come in near their high-points from last season. I actually think they could go beyond those numbers based on the late last season trends, but I'll say they hang right around last season's highs for this over/under.

Over/Under: 3.8 for CBS from 8:00 to 11:00. 

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