| Once Upon a Time | Revenge |
| 4.0 (premiere, 10/23/11) 3.27 (average) 3.3 (finale, 5/13/12) | 3.3 (premiere, 9/21/11, 6.2 lead-in) 2.46 (average, 2.9 average lead-in) 2.4 (finale, 2.4 lead-in) |
| Previous Occupant (9/8c) | Previous Occupants (10/9c) |
| Desperate Housewives 3.2 (premiere, 9/25/11) 2.74 (average) 3.2 (finale, 5/13/12) | 3.1 (Pan Am premiere, 9/25/11, 3.2 lead-in) 1.69 (Pan Am average) 2.2 (GCB premiere, 3/4/12, 2.4 lead-in) 1.92 (GCB average) |
Once Upon a Time finished the season well enough that I think it pretty reliably returns in the low-3's, maybe even a bit higher. I expect 666 Park to be just kind of there, dipping from Revenge but not by that much. I believe the most unpredictable part of this pick is the centerpiece, Revenge at 9/8c. I'm not seeing the show taking a huge leap to Once numbers or anything, but at least on premiere night it should have a good shot at upper 2's. But these shows are young and unpredictable, so this is a pick where I wouldn't be shocked to miss by a half point in either direction.
Over/Under for ABC from 8:00 to 11:00: 2.8.
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14 comments:
Call me overly optimistic, but I think 666 Park Avenue is going to open to basically the same numbers as Pan Am.
Once Upon a Time: 3.6
Revenge: 3.1
666 Park Avenue: 3.0
Over.
Over. ABC's put most of their ad dollars promoting their Sunday shows, and the ratings for both Once Upon a Time and Revenge popped in their finales.
Under, 2.7
Over. But really wild guessing.
On a side note, 666 has great cast and apparently good buzz. Interested measuring idea here:
http://adage.com/article/trending-topics/tvguide-watchlist-a-virtual-focus-group-tv/237184/
Self-selected sample ... but pretty large one.
Top 2 from that list did really well, and 666 is on third place. I sincerely hope No.4 is going to do well too.
Over-
OUAT- 3.4
Revenge- 3.1
OUAT- 3.0
Avg- 3.17
Under.
I've been on the high side more often than not, but this is the one where I lose my mind.
Once: 4.1
Revenge 3.5
666: 3.2
Way over. Three very female-focused shows. Not much overlap except The Good Wife, which will get shelled. I think ABC's gamble will payoff, unlike CBS's,
The whole night should flow really well and there seems to be some good buzz around all three shows. Over.
I've been going over and getting it wrong a lot, but still I've got to go over, so so much advertising, and its hard to imagine there won't at least be initail turnout for 666 park avenue
I will go with Over. Even if I do a somehow pessimistic scenario in which I have:
Once Upon a Time: 3.5 (it s hould manage a 3.9)
Revenge: 2.8 (I agree, this is the hardest to predict, but I see it doing a 3.0)
666 Park Avenue: 2.5 (this depends on Revenge, but it could go higher if Revenge is higher)
I still get a 2.9. My Once prediction is likely too pesimistic and the other two could also go up, so I think it's an over here.
Over. Might be optimistic but think Revenge could do well on Sunday.
Over.
OUAT: 3.7
Revenge: 3.1
666 Park Avenue: 3.0
Although I wouldn't be surprised if REVENGGEEE! or 666 go below 2.8, OUAT is a very strong show and will keep the average up.
OUAT: 3.5, Revenge: 2.6, 666: 2.4 - Average: 2.8. Even. Is that allowed? If not, then over!
“Revenge” is so sweet, and that’s why I can’t get enough of
this show. She leaves no stone unturned when it comes to making people pay. I
want to see how good “Once Upon A Time” will be. Most fairy tales come from
real life events or real people, and if this show can link them all together,
and hold my interest; I'm sold. I got the Hopper to ensure that I never miss or
have to schedule my favorite prime time TV shows. My DISH coworker told me that
its PTAT feature automatically records all of my prime time shows that come on
CBS, NBC, FOX and ABC everyday in HD.
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