The Question, Monday 9/17/12: World Without Power or Woman Without Power?

The Fox/NBC pre-season wars are getting a little more dramatic starting in week two, as each network debuts its first new drama of the season tonight. NBC dips back into the always unpredictable genre pool with Revolution, while Fox has a show about a doctor who works for the mob called The Mob Doctor. Who comes out on top? That's The Question for Monday, September 17, 2012.

Last Season's NBC Drama Premieres	Last Season's Fox Drama Premieres
1.6 (The Playboy Club, 9/19/11, out of 1.9 The Sing-Off) 1.8 (Prime Suspect, 9/22/11, 3.3 Whitney) 2.1 (Grimm, 10/28/11, 1.1 Chuck) 1.4 (The Firm, 1/8/12, 1.7 Dateline) 3.8 (Smash, 2/6/12, 7.7 The Voice) 2.0 (Awake, 3/1/12, 1.7 Up All Night)	3.1 (Terra Nova, 9/26/11) 1.7 (The Finder, 1/12/12, 2.5 Bones) 3.3 (Alcatraz, 1/16/12) 3.9 (Touch, 1/25/12, 7.1 American Idol)
The Voice Lead-In	Bones Lead-In
4.2 (Monday 9/10/12, two hours) 4.0 (9/11/12, one hour) 3.4 (9/12/12, one hour)	2.39 (Bones 2011-12 average) 2.5 (Bones Monday premiere, 4/2/12) 2.13 (Bones Monday average)

Revolution seemingly has all the advantages in this comparison. It should have a 4.0+ lead-in in the 9:30 half-hour of The Voice, whereas The Mob Doctor's lead-in (Bones) seems unlikely to get much beyond a 2.5 or so. I'm skeptical about the compatibility of the Voice/Revolution pairing, but that size demo audience can't hurt on premiere night. And the last post-Bones premiere, spin-off The Finder, managed just a 1.7, though it had a ton of scripted competition on that night. Revolution is the kind of show that tends to build pre-season buzz and premiere pretty well. And (this was a shock to me), the reviews are wayyy in Revolution's favor; it beats out TMD 69 to 36 on Metacritic as of this writing. (I thought Revolution was all right, but a 69?!)

I'd be pretty stunned if Revolution doesn't have a bigger premiere; the question for me is by how much. My instinct says a good over/under for Revolution is a 3.0 to low-3's, while I have serious doubts The Mob Doctor can even get to a 2.0.

I keep wavering between 1.2 and 1.3, so I'm setting this spread at Revolution beats The Mob Doctor by 1.25 A18-49 points. (Revolution -1.25)

(Reply with "Revolution" if you think Revolution beats The Mob Doctor by more than 1.25 points.
Reply with "The Mob Doctor" if you think Revolution beats The Mob Doctor by less than 1.25 points OR if you think The Mob Doctor ties/beats Revolution.)