The Question, Monday 9/10/12: How Much Quieter is The Voice?

For the next few weeks (at least), I'm gonna try to enhance the nightly ratings review by having a nightly ratings preview to bounce off of. Enter The Question, a quick and easy daily look at the upcoming evening's most significant number. I'll list some numbers I find pertinent, I'll write a paragraph (maybe two) about the situation, and I'll make a prediction. I encourage you to comment with whether you think the number will be Over or Under my prediction. I might make some kind of game out of the over/under portion if I ever get to a point where several people are participating.

Here's The Question for Monday, September 10, 2012. NBC's clearly going all-in with their only entertainment show that still really works. But how much quieter is The Voice in its season three premiere?

The Voice premieres	The Voice finales
5.1 (4/26/11) 6.7 (2/6/12)	3.7 (6/29/11) (-27% from premiere) 4.4 (5/8/12) (-34% from premiere)
American Idol Finale -> Premiere	American Idol Premiere -> Finale
+20%, +3%, +18%, +18%, -20%	-17%, -15%, -31%, -5%, -14%

Most of my numbers in these posts, especially for returning show premieres, will be relatively simple year-to-year looks. This one is more complicated because the year-ago 6.7 is (for me anyway) so heavily inflated by the Super Bowl as to be almost irrelevant. So what I did was look at how the finale ratings and the next season's premiere ratings for a similar show, American Idol, tend to interact. The last five Idol premiere ratings have usually bounced up from the prior season's finale (with last year a perhaps notable exception). The point of that number is that the auditions and the live shows are essentially different programs ratings-wise, with the former being the more appealing of the two, and that's probably even more true of The Voice (which dropped much more over the course of the season). Even if the season as a whole is wayyy down, this premiere should be able to get back to the May finale's 4.4. But the flipside argument is can the spinning chairs bring those people back when the show was clearly trending down late last season? Maybe the blind auditions are just that good, but I doubt it's getting much beyond the May finale number.

While starting two weeks early was supposed to avoid competition, The Voice has to deal with reality finales on two opposing networks, including those of arguably the summer's two hottest broadcast shows (Hell's Kitchen and MasterChef). And, oh by the way, Monday Night Football's premiere night.

All told, I'm going Over/Under: 4.6.