| NCIS: Los Angeles lead-in | post-NCIS: LA premieres |
| 3.6 (premiere, 9/20/11, +6% year-to-year) 3.18 (2011-12 average) 3.0 (finale, 5/15/12, -9%) | 3.1 (The Good Wife, 9/22/09, 4.4 lead-in) 2.5 (The Good Wife season 2, 9/28/10, 3.7) 2.9 (Unforgettable, 9/20/11, 3.6) |
Who knows where the show ends up, but I have a feeling that Vegas will at least begin in the same range as previous lower-profile efforts like The Good Wife and Unforgettable. Unforgettable in particular was a show that wasn't making magazine covers and the like. So I see the NCIS pair's audience hanging in there about as well as they did with Unforgettable, but then I think there might be some extra samplers from outside the typical CBS realm.
Over/Under: 3.0.
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10 comments:
Over
Yesterday, I would have been an unequivocal "over," but last night's ugly 10pm ratings give me pause. But I'll stick with my initial bet of over.
Under- 2.9
Under. I'd have been leaning that way already but after seeing how Five-0 did last night.
Over but only because it's apparently good
Under, but just barely. Especially after last night's Five-0 number, it looks like the luster may finally be off the CBS brand, and therefore the NCIS:LA lead-in won't be strong enough to life support the Vegas premiere the way it did the Unforgettable premiere. That said, hype boosts it enough to get it about even, so a 2.9.
Over.
Show is supposed to attract multiple audiences, and (at least for premiere) it should:
- Quaid is quite a draw
- The Shield fans
- wise guys stories fans
- last and most numerous - usual suspects, CBS-procedurals faithful viewers
I'll go under at 2.7, because although I expect LA to beat its 3.6 from last year, coutesy of a big NCIS bump, I just don't think Vegas will draw that well.
Under, 2.7
tough one only because its so hard to guess what NCIS LA is going to get, especially after a disappointing monday for cbs, that said NCIS is still a machine, and I reckon it draws a big enough number to anchor the entire night, so I'd go over (but just)
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