Fall 2012 Best Case/Worst Case, Tuesday 9/8c

The Basics:

	bc	Rank	y2y	Rank	TPUT	Rank	bc/TPUT	Rank
Tuesday 9:00	10.6	10	-6%	11	36.2	5	29%	11

Tuesday at 9:00 was by far the least competitive of the weeknight 9:00 hours, with really only New Girl (especially early in the season) and The Voice toward the end of the season counting as real standouts for their networks.

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		Happy Endings	Slot Average
		Premieres October 23	2.17
		Best Case: Happy Endings was never that good a fit with Modern Family, and it's developed a heck of an audience that will follow it elsewhere. Drops just 15% to a 2.30. Worst Case: Maybe they didn't look like a good fit, but Happy Endings took pretty typical drops when Modern went into repeats. The Dancing with the Stars pairing is a non-starter. There's similar comedy competition that has a huge head start. It drops -45%, the same % drop as Cougar Town last year, to a 1.49. Likeliest: Well, I don't think it's going down quite as much as Cougar Town, because this situation isn't quite as comically bad. But nothing is really lining up in this show's favor. I think ABC's the big loser in the comedy logjam. Drops 35% to 1.76.	Slot Orig Avg
			2.34
2.71			Occupants
			Dancing with the Stars Fall
y2y	Label
+56%	solid		3.06	2.64
			The River
True2	Sitch
2.13	+27%		1.74	1.74
			Dancing with the Stars Spring
2011-12 Slot
Wednesday 9:30			2.67	2.87

		Apartment 23	Slot Average
		Premieres October 23	2.27
		Best Case: For the most part, Apartment 23 seemed to have settled on about the same pace as Happy Endings, and that continues on Tuesday. Gets a 1.90 and fully retains a slightly overachieving Endings. Worst Case: Then again, the repeats this summer to date have suggested it's not really on the Happy Endings pace. Drops a couple tenths from a weak Happy Endings to a 1.40. Likeliest: I was pretty up and down on this show in its spring run, but ultimately I don't feel it's a special enough show to make any real noise. I think it's gonna drop a couple ticks from Happy Endings and average a 1.56.	Slot Orig Avg
			2.47
2.34			Occupants
			Dancing with the Stars Fall
y2y	Label
	marginal		3.06	2.64
			The River
True2	Sitch
2.12	+10%		1.74	1.74
			Dancing with the Stars Spring
2011-12 Slot
Wednesday 9:30			2.67	2.87

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		NCIS: Los Angeles	Slot Average
		Premieres September 25	2.70
		Best Case: A bunch of young-skewing comedies cancelling each other out means good times for LA, which shares less audience with them than it did with the reality results shows. Up 2% to 3.25. Worst Case: I said the worst case for its NCIS lead-in was -13%, so let's say that happens and LA follows it down by 13% to 2.77. Likeliest: An interesting note about LA is that it randomly finished the season very well, dropping just one tick out of the mothership in two of its last three episodes. I said NCIS would go -6%, but with more favorable competition I'll go a bit better for the spin-off. Drops just 3% to a 3.08.	Slot Orig Avg
			3.19
3.18			Occupants
			NCIS: Los Angeles
y2y	Label
-6%	hit		3.18	2.64
True2	Sitch
2.64	+20%
2011-12 Slot
Tuesday 9:00

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		Go On (NEW!)	Slot Average
			2.42
			Slot Orig Avg
		Premieres September 11	2.44
Best Case: Clearly there was a lot more interest here than in Animal Practice based on the sampling after the Olympics. Starts with the same big numbers Mr. Sunshine (Yay.) did but has the goods creatively to a much larger extent in subsequent weeks. The New Girl of 2012-13. 3.20 average. Worst Case: A large audience wanted to see a Matthew Perry sitcom a couple years ago, and it sucked. A large audience wanted to see a snarky dude thrown into a diverse band of misfits on Community, and it... well, it went to some not exactly "mass-appealing" places. Won't get fooled again. 1.80 average with a huge post-The Voice drop, but... it probably still gets another season. Likeliest: Obviously based on those two cases I would find it pretty surprising if this show finds a way to not make season two, but anything's possible. I was kinda lukewarm on the pilot, but I could definitely see it becoming a good show. I'm saying it loses out to New Girl but is still a pretty solid third place option and among NBC's top scripted shows. 2.70.			Occupants
			The Biggest Loser Fall
			2.16	1.92
			The Biggest Loser Spring
			2.18	2.19
			The Voice Tue
			3.61	3.63

		The New Normal (NEW!)	Slot Average
			2.54
			Slot Orig Avg
		Premieres September 11	2.57
Best Case: Remember in fall 2009 when Modern Family launched quite well yet the show with the more controversial premise (Cougar Town) actually built from it? Let's say that happens here too. It doesn't sustain that growth, but it stays closer as things settle down than Cougar Town ever did. 2.70. Worst Case: The jig is up, Ryan Murphy. These characters are all awful and without being able to lean on music or horror or some other crutch, everyone realizes it pretty quickly. 1.55, settles at a number much lower than that, and gone at midseason. Likeliest: I have to say that I think this show had the best Olympics promos of any new NBC show. I was not quite as enthusiastic when I actually saw the pilot, and I can't say I buy that everything Ryan Murphy touches is a hit, but for now I still think it could end up being a decent program. 2.30, drops a bit from Go On but gets a comfortable season two renewal.			Occupants
			The Biggest Loser Fall
			2.16	1.92
			The Biggest Loser Spring
			2.18	2.19
			The Voice Tue
			3.61	3.63

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		New Girl	Slot Average
		Premieres September 25	3.03
		Best Case: It's not gonna have the lead-in it had last year, which limits the sophomore bounceability, but it happens nonetheless. She's a bonafide powerhouse now with a 3.71 average, up 15%. Worst Case: Um, did you see how far it fell last season? Plus, the 8:00 hour is a disaster. We have another quick flameout comedy ala My Name is Earl here. Down 20% to a 2.58. Likeliest: I'm a bit stumped here. I do think the spring problems were a little overblown, but it was still somewhat worrying. If the new shows that surround it are non-starters like Teenage Daughter and Breaking In were, this could be a long season. I'll show some faith and say it breaks even at 3.23.	Slot Orig Avg
			3.33
3.23			Occupants
			New Girl
y2y	Label
	hit		3.23	2.88
True2	Sitch
2.88	+12%
2011-12 Slot
Tuesday 9:00

		The Mindy Project (NEW!)	Slot Average
			2.20
			Slot Orig Avg
		Premieres September 25	2.46
Best Case: Jess and Mindy are as perfect a pair as everyone imagined. The latter holds onto just about all of the former's audience and is the season's biggest new comedy. 3.10. Worst Case: Mindy Kaling often wrote very strange episodes of The Office, and this show, in that vein, ends up being just a little too strange. Combined with a struggling New Girl, Mindy averages just a 2.00, scrapes out a back nine, but sits squarely on the bubble at season's end. Likeliest: I don't see why this wouldn't be a very compatible hour. It's hard to say where New Girl ends up, but I think Mindy holds enough of that audience regardless. I'll say a 2.82 average.			Occupants
			Raising Hope
			2.30	1.82
			Breaking In
			1.44	1.31

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		Emily Owens, MD (NEW!)	Slot Average
			0.48
			Slot Orig Avg
		Premieres October 9	0.52
Best Case: It's Hart of Dixie: The Squeakquel! It's a medical drama that exceeds modest expectations, holds basically the whole Hart audience and edges out some heavier-hyped Vampire Diaries lead-out for a renewal just like Hart did last year. 0.64. Worst Case: What was charming on Hart of Dixie is supremely annoying on Emily Owens. The former's audience is initially open to this show, but a gap opens rather quickly. Ends its run after 13 episodes with a 0.46 average. Likeliest: I feel like this kind of show is a smart general direction for the CW, but I find the promos for this particular show badly annoying, and the whole "hospital is like high school" thing is frankly ridiculous.Yet I think this may stick around for a bit because what in the world else would reasonably fit after Hart of Dixie at midseason? I say it gets a Melrose Place-type small extension and ends in March or so with a 0.50.			Occupants
			Ringer
			0.61	0.52
			The LA Complex
			0.25	0.27

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Network to Watch: It's a big hour for Fox too, but I'm taking NBC. They seem to believe these are their two best comedy pilots in what they seem to believe was a great year for comedy development. So if they don't work? Look out below, as usual.

My Picks: I typically try all the new stuff, and there sure is a lot of new stuff. New Girl is the only returnee in which I have much interest. If I had to guess, I'd say I end up with the Fox and NBC comedy blocks, but it may be less than that. May try Apartment 23 again if I've given up on Mindy and/or New Normal by the time it comes along.