Fall 2012 Best Case/Worst Case, Thursday 9/8c

The Basics:

	bc	Rank	y2y	Rank	TPUT	Rank	bc/TPUT	Rank
Thursday 9:00	10.8	8	-10%	20	35.3	9	31%	9

As with the other Thursday hours, 9:00 on Thursday is the least-viewed of the 9:00 hours on the five weeknights. It was not nearly as competitive last year as Idol/Big Bang-laden 8:00, and it had the second-biggest year-to-year drop of the whole week. NBC's The Office problems stood out the most, but ABC, Fox and the CW were all down in the general 10% range as well.

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		Grey's Anatomy	Slot Average
		Premieres September 27	2.81
		Best Case: Grey's Anatomy was on fire late last season! That carries over into the fall and results in an improbable -2% to a 3.50. Worst Case: This show just hasn't lost its audience as quickly as many similar shows. Eventually the bottom has to fall out, and facing similarly-skewing Glee is as good a time as any. Down 23% to an ugly 2.74 and gets an announced final season in 2013-14. Likeliest: I'm a little torn here. It was undeniably a very hot show late last season, but can a show this old keep that up? And while I'm guessing it easily beats Glee, that show's gonna create a tough choice for a lot of women 18-34. All told I'll say it loses another 13% to a 3.10.	Slot Orig Avg
			3.40
3.56			Occupants
			Grey's Anatomy
y2y	Label
-13%	big hit		3.56	3.60
True2	Sitch
3.60	-1%
2011-12 Slot
Thursday 9:00

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		Person of Interest	Slot Average
		Premieres September 27	2.54
		Best Case: It's a sophomore show with much bigger lead-ins than it ever had last year. It was stronger in the second half last season. All the ingredients are there for this to take a step toward big hit-dom. Up 25% to a 3.59 and in a horse race for top drama on TV. Worst Case: Though it was strong in the second half, it did sort of tail off in the last few weeks. Two and a Half Men is a disappointment at 8:30. An underwhelming slightly down 2.80. Readers flee in droves from SpottedRatings.com because all he talks about is how CBS should've had a fourth comedy hour. Likeliest: Maybe in a couple years this will be the top drama on TV, but I'd focus on being the top drama in the timeslot first. It's taking a step up in season two, but I don't think it'll be as massive as some think. I'm giving it 11% and a 3.20.	Slot Orig Avg
			2.88
2.87			Occupants
			Person of Interest
y2y	Label
	solid		2.87	2.69
True2	Sitch
2.69	+7%
2011-12 Slot
Thursday 9:00

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		The Office	Slot Average
		Premieres September 20	2.29
		Best Case: The final season is announced. It never lost more than 7% in a season till it lost Steve Carell. Carell comes back late in the season. Breaks even with a 2.77. Worst Case: While the show had some high-rated "event" episodes like the Jim & Pam wedding, it never really built as much for the Carell departure as many thought it would. And with no Carell to be seen, the run-up to the finale disappoints. Down 16% more to a 2.33. Likeliest: I'm probably always gonna be overly optimistic on this show, but I think the return of Greg Daniels and a clear sense of direction will help big-time creatively. Gonna be tough to top Grey's and a trending-up PoI, but I'll say it drops just 5% and signs off with a 2.63.	Slot Orig Avg
			2.64
2.77			Occupants
			The Office
y2y	Label
-26%	solid		2.77	2.80
True2	Sitch
2.80	-1%
2011-12 Slot
Thursday 9:00

		Parks and Recreation	Slot Average
		Premieres September 20	1.65
		Best Case: The late-season post-Office struggles didn't really mean much. Just an end-of-season throwaway. It was solid in a much tougher 8:30 slot last year, and a rejuvenated Office lead-in will help. It was +16% two years ago when it moved to 9:30, and it's +16% again to a 2.13. Worst Case: The P&R audience is a lot more locked in than it was two years ago, as seen late last season. The Office lead-in doesn't mean much of anything. Down a couple percent to 1.80. Likeliest: Even in the disappointing post-Office run last spring, it retained about 75% of that show's audience. I'll say that happens again. Without accounting for my theory that it moves to make way for the Office spin-off at midseason, I'll say it's up 7% to a 1.97 and is one of the very few NBC comedy returnees to get renewed. (Maybe even the only?)	Slot Orig Avg
			1.83
1.84			Occupants
			Whitney
y2y	Label
-23%	marginal		2.20	1.83
			Up All Night
True2	Sitch
1.91	-4%		1.62	1.70
			Parks and Recreation
2011-12 Slot
Thu 8:30, Thu 9:30			1.68	1.74

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		Glee	Slot Average
		Premieres September 13	2.81
		Best Case: Splitting time in all these different places is actually a pretty fresh approach. Glee broke out airing after American Idol, and the talent show lead-in fits like a glove once more. Down only 8% to a 2.78. Worst Case: I've been saying for pretty much this show's whole run that it'd flame out after four seasons, so why change my mind after it went -32% in season three?! The creative stuff is a mess, Grey's Anatomy deals the deathblow, and another 30% flees, leaving it at a 2.10 and dunzo. Likeliest: I don't really see this ending well. At this point, The X Factor will do more to lift expectations than to actually funnel in new audience. Down 25% to a 2.27. But the one thing I didn't account for in my four-year flameout theory was Fox's lack of any real drama options. That means this is a pretty tough decision at season's end.	Slot Orig Avg
			2.91
3.02			Occupants
			Bones
y2y	Label
-32%	hit		2.76	2.23
			The Finder
True2	Sitch
2.92	+3%		2.23	1.67
			Touch
2011-12 Slot
Tuesday 8:00			2.15	1.93

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		Beauty and the Beast (NEW!)	Slot Average
			0.58
			Slot Orig Avg
		Premieres October 11	0.75
Best Case: It's all about The Vampire Diaries compatibility. It's not too different like Nikita, but it's not a poor man's clone like The Secret Circle. A happy medium is found, and BatB holds a little over 80% of the TVD aud and cruises to renewal. 0.90. Worst Case: Yeah... that all sounds nice, but it doesn't mean much because the show is completely awful. Its 0.60 marks barely 50% retention and gets it canned in February so the net can put Cult in this slot. Likeliest: I dunno. Maybe this would be a clearer fail if I'd actually seen it. But people say Kristin Kreuk is not believable and it feels like they were saying that about Rachel Bilson this time a year ago. I'm sorry if this sounds patronizing, but I have a feeling "the Beast is too hot" is not gonna be that much of an issue. I'll say this, like TSC last year, hangs in there despite being creatively suspect and is another close call down the stretch. 0.72 average.			Occupants
			The Secret Circle
			0.77	0.59

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Cable:

Show	Network	Premieres	Avg	y2y
Thursday Night Football	NFLN	9/13	2.49

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Network to Watch: I'm taking CBS. As far as I'm concerned, CBS pretty much arranged their entire Monday and Thursday schedules for the benefit of Person of Interest, so there's some pressure on it to repay that favor. Considering its lead-in will almost certainly be bigger than what Rules of Engagment and Rob provided in season one, breaking even would probably be considered a disappointment.

My Picks: Only definite is the Office/Parks block, though I will probably stick out Glee at this point as well. I was kind of in and out on Person of Interest last year. May catch it during rerun season. I'll at least check out Beauty and the Beast.