Go to desktop version

The Latest

Sunday, September 16, 2012

Fall 2012 Best Case/Worst Case, Sunday 10/9c


The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Sunday 10:00 14.2 1 -2% 7 36.7 4 39% 1

The most-viewed 10:00 hour of the week and the most-broadcast viewed 10:00 hour by a really wide margin because of Sunday Night Football. After football, things soured, as CBS' CSI: Miami didn't survive the season and neither did ABC's Pan Am or GCB, while NBC's Celebrity Apprentice was massively down.



Image 666 Park Ave (NEW!) Slot Average
2.12
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres September 30 1.86
Best Case: Fits like a glove with the two sophomore dramas earlier in the ABC evening, and the highly recognizable cast helps it get out of the gate strong. Averages a 2.60, holding nearly all of Revenge, and cruises to season two.

Worst Case:
Terry O'Quinn and Vanessa Williams don't get enough screen time, and the show ends up being much more of a drag than Revenge ever was. Ends early in 2013 like Pan Am with a 1.60 average.

Likeliest:
I'd be kinda surprised if this one totally bombs just because the cast includes a familiar face from like every ABC drama of the last decade. I also don't see it being a breakout. So I'm going right in the middle of the two cases and saying a 2.10. That'd put it in the discussion at season's end.
Occupants
Pan Am
1.69 1.47
GCB
1.94 1.88



Image The Mentalist Slot Average
Premieres September 30 2.27
Best Case: This was undoubtedly a stronger show than CSI: Miami at the end of last season, so it should make a noticeable gain on Miami's slot average. Doesn't miss a beat and drops 5% to a 2.48.

Worst Case:
CSI: Miami blew a third of its audience in a Sunday move; can we really rule out a huge drop for this show? Down 25% to a 1.96, barely builds on The Good Wife, and lasts just a season on Sunday.

Likeliest:
I don't see this show dropping nearly as much as Miami if only because Miami was coming from a much better situation two years ago (Monday after then-top scripted show The Big Bang Theory). I still think its results may end up looking disappointing, but I'm giving it a slight gain on the year-ago Miami results and one more year on Sunday. Down 14% to a 2.25.
Slot Orig Avg
2.04
2.61Occupants
CSI: Miami
y2y Label
-10% solid2.19 2.03
NYC 22
True2 Sitch
2.40 +9%1.33 1.31
2011-12 Slot
Thursday 10:00



Image Sunday Night Football Slot Average
Premieres September 5 5.27
Best Case: It's football! I mean, why wouldn't it just grow into perpetuity? America loves its foooooooootball! Give it another 5% and an 8.78 average.

Worst Case:
Have you seen some of these kinda stinky preseason ratings? Also, people become more informed on the concussion issues that are starting to hang over the sport. Down 10% to a still ridiculous 7.52.

Likeliest:
I think the bad preseason ratings are about matchups to some extent, but I also believe football cannot possibly grow forever. I think it begins to inch down this year. The concussion issues are still a little too far off the radar to make much impact. All told, a 4% decline to an even 8.00.
Slot Orig Avg
3.20*
8.36Occupants
Sunday Night Football
y2y Label
+1% megahit8.36 7.34
Celebrity Apprentice
True2 Sitch
7.34 +14%2.05 2.00
2011-12 Slot
Sunday 8:30

*-Note that this number in particular is heavily inflated by the one post-Super Bowl episode of The Voice that aired (approximately) in the 10:00 slot.


Cable:

ShowNetworkPremieres Avg y2y
HomelandShowtime9/300.47



Network to Watch: The third straight Sunday hour where I think ABC is most interesting. I'm on the fence about 666 Park's prospects.

My Picks: Homeland. Try out 666 Park.

© SpottedRatings.com 2009-2022. All Rights Reserved.