Fall 2012 Best Case/Worst Case, Sunday 9/8c

The Basics:

	bc	Rank	y2y	Rank	TPUT	Rank	bc/TPUT	Rank
Sunday 9:00	14.0	2	-9%	17	39.7	1	35%	2

It's the most-overall viewed hour of the primetime week, and thanks to Sunday Night Football it's also the second-most competitive hour on broadcast. That doesn't even account for all of cable's heavy hitters on the evening. The broadcasters were down an above-average amount thanks to most of the heavy hitters (Desperate Housewives, Family Guy, Celebrity Apprentice) taking significant year-to-year hits.

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		Revenge	Slot Average
		Premieres September 30	2.59
		Best Case: A hit is born! The second season is even better than the first, the timeslot has no prohibitive competition, and it holds almost all of its much better lead-in. 3.00, up by over 20%. Worst Case: Lead-in shmead-in. The show only had about a season of story in it and crumbles to a 2.10, down 15%, and it barely limps into a third season. Likeliest: Everything sets up quite nicely in the timeslot, but I'm still not as sold on the show itself as a lot of people, and I thought the episodes after Tyler left were kinda underwhelming. I'm gonna say it ends up right in the middle of the season one pace and the year-ago Desperate Housewives pace with a 2.60. That'd be up 6%.	Slot Orig Avg
			2.67
2.46			Occupants
			Desperate Housewives
y2y	Label
	solid		2.74	2.23
True2	Sitch
2.22	+11%
2011-12 Slot
Wednesday 10:00

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		The Good Wife	Slot Average
		Premieres September 30	2.47
		Best Case: Now settled in on Sunday and with Desperate Housewives out of the slot, the bleeding stops completely. Averages an even 2.00. Worst Case: As much as they love the show, CBS struggles to ignore a noticeable season four ratings downturn. It loses 15% to a 1.70, seemingly drags down The Mentalist, and CBS finally pulls the plug. Likeliest: I imagine ABC's transition from Desperate Housewives to Revenge will pretty much be a wash, as both those shows skewed similarly last year. Maybe it matters if Revenge blows away the year-ago DH ratings, but I personally don't think that happens. Down 7% to a 1.86 and is again CBS' lowest-rated weeknight renewal.	Slot Orig Avg
			2.32
2.01			Occupants
			The Good Wife
y2y	Label
-9%	marginal		2.01	1.61
True2	Sitch
1.64	+23%
2011-12 Slot
Sunday 9:00

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		Sunday Night Football	Slot Average
		Premieres September 5	5.81
		Best Case: It's football! I mean, why wouldn't it just grow into perpetuity? America loves its foooooooootball! Give it another 5% and an 8.78 average. Worst Case: Have you seen some of these kinda stinky preseason ratings? Also, people become more informed on the concussion issues that are starting to hang over the sport. Down 10% to a still ridiculous 7.52. Likeliest: I think the bad preseason ratings are about matchups to some extent, but I also believe football cannot possibly grow forever. I think it begins to inch down this year. The concussion issues are still a little too far off the radar to make much impact. All told, a 4% decline to an even 8.00.	Slot Orig Avg
			1.76
8.36			Occupants
			Sunday Night Football
y2y	Label
+1%	megahit		8.36	7.34
			Celebrity Apprentice
True2	Sitch
7.34	+14%		2.05	2.00
2011-12 Slot
Sunday 8:30

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		Family Guy	Slot Average
		Premieres September 30	3.25
		Best Case: The repeat ratings have been heating up fast in recent weeks. Drops just 3% to a 2.94. Worst Case: The NFL continues to prop up the early season numbers, but the late-season struggles get worse and worse. Duplicates last year's -15% and posts a 2.58. Likeliest: The show has indeed been falling a little faster the last couple years, but the summer repeats remain so remarkably strong that I don't really see it falling apart against virtually the same competition. I'll say it loses 9% to a 2.76.	Slot Orig Avg
			3.08
3.03			Occupants
			Family Guy
y2y	Label
-15%	hit		3.03	2.60
True2	Sitch
2.60	+17%
2011-12 Slot
Sunday 9:00

		American Dad!	Slot Average
		Premieres September 30	2.82
		Best Case: I'm taking the same year-to-year range with this show as with Family Guy. If its lead-in is down just 3%, so is Dad! 2.22. Worst Case: Duplicates Family Guy's worst-case -15% and ends up with a 1.94. Likeliest: American Dad! hasn't had a "regular" year-to-year comparison in awhile, since it moved to 7:30 in 2010-11 and took a big hit, then went back to 9:30 in 2011-12 and gained a touch. So all I can really figure is that it'll follow Family Guy wherever it goes. I give it a -9% to a 2.08.	Slot Orig Avg
			2.37
2.28			Occupants
			American Dad!
y2y	Label
+2%	marginal		2.28	1.85
True2	Sitch
1.85	+23%
2011-12 Slot
Sunday 9:30

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Cable:

Show	Network	Premieres	Avg	y2y
The Walking Dead	AMC	10/14	3.41	+29%
Boardwalk Empire	HBO	9/16	1.13	-16%
Dexter	SHO	9/30	0.93	-1%

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Network to Watch: Definitely ABC. I could see Revenge taking a noticeable step up or just completely failing to recapture what it had last year and taking a big step down. Either way, this was the big move of the ABC upfront and one of their highest-stakes hours of the season.

My Picks: The Walking Dead and Revenge.