Sunday, September 2, 2012

Fall 2012 Best Case/Worst Case, Sunday 8/7c


The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Sunday 8:00 13.1 3 +2% 5 37.9 3 35% 3

As is true of every Sunday hour, it has the most broadcast viewing and the most overall viewing of any hour of the week at this time. But the former stat in particular is way inflated by Sunday Night Football in the fall. In the second half of the season, this hour was surprisingly uncompetitive, with only ABC a real standout relative to the rest of the schedule. But the arrival of Once Upon a Time and the continued football strength helped the hour slightly gain year-to-year.




Image Once Upon a Time Slot Average
Premieres September 30 2.90
Best Case: Like many a serialized program before it, the peak period in Once's life comes early in season two, and it's able to maintain that momentum against little competition in the winter/spring. +9% sophomore bounce to 3.57.

Worst Case:
Once is just not built for a long run. There are only so many fairy tales, and all that. Starts strong, but its spring drops suggest there may only be one more year in this. -20% to 2.62.

Likeliest:
I don't see this show running for a decade or anything, but the finale was quite promising both creatively and ratings-wise, so I don't think there will be major warning signs this season. Should be strong early and down late to end up with a 3.20 (down 2%).
Slot Orig Avg
3.08
3.27Occupants
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition
y2y Label
hit2.08 1.73
Once Upon a Time
True2 Sitch
2.81 +17%3.27 2.81
2011-12 Slot
Sunday 8:00




Image The Amazing Race Slot Average
Premieres September 30 3.01
Best Case: The Race had a pretty promising season last spring, and the NFL proximity can only help. Mimics the spring season's -1% and goes 2.85.

Worst Case:
The NFL lead-in is just a little less potent. -15% to 2.45.

Likeliest:
I'm gonna go right in the middle. This show keeps quietly chugging along. -8% to 2.65.
Slot Orig Avg
2.85
2.88Occupants
The Amazing Race Fall
y2y Label
-13% solid2.81 2.10
The Amazing Race Spring
True2 Sitch
2.19 +31%2.62 2.34
2011-12 Slot
Sunday 8:00




Image Sunday Night Football Slot Average
Premieres September 5 3.83
Best Case: It's football! I mean, why wouldn't it just grow into perpetuity? America loves its foooooooootball! Give it another 5% and an 8.78 average.

Worst Case:
Have you seen some of these kinda stinky preseason ratings? Also, people become more informed on the concussion issues that are starting to hang over the sport. Down 10% to a still ridiculous 7.52.

Likeliest:
I think the bad preseason ratings are about matchups to some extent, but I also believe football cannot possibly grow forever. I think it begins to inch down this year. The concussion issues are still a little too far off the radar to make much impact. All told, a 4% decline to an even 8.00.
Slot Orig Avg
1.02
8.36Occupants
Football Night
y2y Label
+1% megahit2.34 2.04
Harry's Law
True2 Sitch
7.34 +14%0.90 1.06
2011-12 Slot
Sunday 8:30




Image The Simpsons Slot Average
Premieres September 30 3.02
Best Case: The gap between fall and spring numbers continues to widen, but those fall numbers remain pretty impressive. Loses just 4% and remains a top ad rates draw with a 2.75.

Worst Case:
Last year was the worst for The Simpsons in three years in terms of year-to-year, and it's a sign of even bigger things to come. -15% to 2.44.

Likeliest:
Like with The Amazing Race, there's no real reason to say it won't just keep plugging away. Maybe some day it'll drop big, but I don't see why to predict it now. I'll say it loses 9% and averages a 2.61.
Slot Orig Avg
2.93
2.87Occupants
The Simpsons
y2y Label
-11% solid2.87 2.23
True2 Sitch
2.23 +29%
2011-12 Slot
Sunday 8:00


Image Bob's Burgers Slot Average
Premieres September 30 2.56
Best Case: Welcome to the fall/winter, Bob's Burgers. Bob's Burgers maintains the same kind of retention out of those NFL-inflated episodes of The Simpsons, and it's a huge benefit to a show that's only really been in tough spots previously. Up a stout 28% to a 2.40.

Worst Case:
Maybe Bob's Burgers did OK in tough situations, but that loyal audience is pretty locked in at this point, and not that many others are interested. Down 1% to 1.85.

Likeliest:
If Allen Gregory of all shows could average a 1.97 in the fall, I see no reason why Bob's Burgers shouldn't do better than that. The show may be down again in spring numbers, but the fall bounce is going to be pretty significant when lining up the year-to-yearlies. Up 15% to 2.15.
Slot Orig Avg
2.17
1.87Occupants
Allen Gregory
y2y Label
-20% marginal1.97 1.42
Napoleon Dynamite
True2 Sitch
1.68 +11%2.46 1.99
Bob's Burgers
2011-12 Slot
Sunday 8:301.87 1.68



Network to Watch: ABC. The other networks present fairly reliable options, but we can't really know for sure how the Once Upon a Time story is going to develop going forward. I don't see a collapse coming, but I can't totally rule it out either.

My Picks: Once Upon a Time, maybe NFL.

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