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Friday, September 14, 2012

Fall 2012 Best Case/Worst Case, Friday 10/9c


The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Friday 10:00 7.6 17 -3% 10 30.1 17 25% 17

This is the one hour of primetime that's gone entirely unchanged for a few years now (basically since the Blue Bloods premiere in fall 2010). All those shows were down just a touch in 2011-12, making this a fairly middling hour in year-to-year comparisons.



Image 20/20 Slot Average
Premieres September 14 1.40
Best Case: 20/20 was stronger in the second half last season when Shark Tank and Primetime: What Would You Do? showed up. With both of those plus a primetime Nightline leading in at various times plus a bit of an election bump, it's up a tick to 1.55.

Worst Case:
ABC's Friday lineup crumbles in the face of all the scripted offerings on other networks, and 20/20 leads out with a 10% loss to a 1.31.

Likeliest:
It looks like 20/20 basically broke even in the last election year. I think it gets slightly better lead-ins this year, so I'll give it a 3% gain to a 1.50.
Slot Orig Avg
1.41
1.45Occupants
20/20
y2y Label
-5% flop1.38 1.65
True2 Sitch
1.67 -13%
2011-12 Slot
Friday 10:00



Image Blue Bloods Slot Average
Premieres September 28 1.58
Best Case: Has mostly been quite consistent for a couple years. Why stop now? An even money 1.72.

Worst Case:
It finished last season weakly, Made in Jersey is a weak lead-in, and it's a rough fall for Blue Bloods as viewers choose the newsmagazine logjam due to election season. Ends up down 12% to a kinda worrying 1.51.

Likeliest:
Just keeps chugging along. I doubt slight upticks from the newsmagazines are going to take huge chunks of audience away from this show. I do think Made in Jersey will be a little less helpful than CSI: NY, so I'll say -5% to a 1.63.
Slot Orig Avg
1.72
1.72Occupants
Blue Bloods
y2y Label
-3% marginal1.72 1.94
True2 Sitch
1.94 -12%
2011-12 Slot
Friday 10:00



Image Dateline Slot Average
Premieres September 21 1.28
Best Case: Election bump! Up a tick to 1.42.

Worst Case:
League average drop to 1.20.

Likeliest:
I'll say it's maybe up a bit in October/November but that's cancelled out by slight drops for most of the rest of the season. Breaks even at a 1.32.
Slot Orig Avg
1.30
1.32Occupants
Dateline
y2y Label
-7% flop1.24 1.51
True2 Sitch
1.54 -15%
2011-12 Slot
Friday 10:00



Cable:

ShowNetworkPremieres Avg y2y
HavenSyfy9/210.52+0%



Network to Watch: I guess I'll say CBS, since I don't think Blue Bloods is that far away from being in shaky territory. But I think there's a pretty strong chance all three of these shows end up right back here a year from now.

My Picks: Blue Bloods. Perfect turn-off-brain Friday show.

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