Fall 2012 Best Case/Worst Case, Wednesday 8/7c

The Basics:

	bc	Rank	y2y	Rank	TPUT	Rank	bc/TPUT	Rank
Wednesday 8:00	10.8	9	-8%	16	33.1	14	33%	7

A fairly competitive hour, but to finish with the sixth-biggest year-to-year decline even after Fox introduced X Factor was disappointing. Credit the major problems with American Idol, a couple relatively weak Survivor seasons, a string of NBC flops (especially at 8:30) and the CW pretty much sitting out the fall after canning H8R.

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		The Middle	Slot Average
		Premieres September 26	2.21
		Best Case: +7% in season two; +6% in season three. Can we really rule out another +6%? As much as it dropped in the spring, I'm saying yes. I'll still give it a shot at an even-money 2.60. Worst Case: The X Factor explodes, Animal Practice gets kind of decent ratings, Survivor gets its act together and Arrow is legitimately on the map. Tough sledding means a 15% drop to 2.21 but another comfortable renewal. Likeliest: I don't really buy that all that worst case stuff is happening, but it's pretty tough to grow year after year after year in this day and age. I think ABC Wednesday has peaked from a raw numbers standpoint. -4% to 2.50.	Slot Orig Avg
			2.57
2.60			Occupants
			The Middle
y2y	Label
+6%	solid		2.60	2.66
True2	Sitch
2.66	-2%
2011-12 Slot
Wednesday 8:00

		The Neighbors (NEW!)	Slot Average
			2.31
			Slot Orig Avg
		Premieres September 26	2.63
Best Case: Hey, maybe some of that spin about why The Neighbors was moved is correct. Maybe it really is a good fit with The Middle! But it still drops a few ticks from that lead-in. It gets extended to 17 episodes but another newbie fills in starting in March. 2.10 average. Worst Case: Sometimes every critic in the world is just right. By its second ep at 8:30, it can't break 2.0. It's gone for Middle repeats by November. 1.60 average. Likeliest: I mean, this show certainly seems like a better fit with the Wednesday lineup than plenty of other shows they've tried, but at some point you have to be a somewhat competent production. Nobody really seems to think this is any good. So this feels like a fail, and I think it's gone by 2013. 1.80 average.			Occupants
			Suburgatory
			2.60	2.45

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		Survivor	Slot Average
		Premieres September 19	2.60
		Best Case: Good season. -5% to 3.18. Worst Case: Bad season. -15% to 2.85. Another soft season in the spring mean talks about the end of Survivor begin to heat up, but it manages one more year. Likeliest: You just never know what's gonna happen creatively with this show, but I will say that I think the boring seasons have become a bit too frequent in recent years. Maybe that's just me burning out on the show again. Anyway, I'll just go middle of the road among Survivor seasons in the last five years and say -10% to 3.00.	Slot Orig Avg
			3.02
3.35			Occupants
			Survivor Fall
y2y	Label
-9%	hit		3.27	3.00
			Survivor Spring
True2	Sitch
3.05	+10%		2.85	3.22
2011-12 Slot
Wednesday 8:00

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		Animal Practice (NEW!)	Slot Average
			1.63
			Slot Orig Avg
		Premieres September 26	1.71
Best Case: Animals! Highest-testing character in an NBC pilot! Olympics sampling! Joanna Garcia-Swisher! Does a little better than Up All Night in the hour. 2.20 average and a second season. Worst Case: Yeah, animals, but the humor is not exactly family-friendly. Clearly less interest here than in Go On based on the post-Olympic results. 1.40 average and gone by 2013. Likeliest: I've gone back and forth on this one a couple times, but the pilot made me more of a seller. It wasn't so much about it being bad (though it was hardly good), it was more that it becomes tougher for me to envision this as a show with family appeal. I say it averages a 1.60 and (because it's NBC, after all) gets an extension but doesn't last the full season.			Occupants
			Up All Night
			1.99	1.93
			Whitney
			1.59	1.77
			Off Their Rockers
			1.55	1.89

		Guys With Kids (NEW!)	Slot Average
			1.32
			Slot Orig Avg
		Premieres September 26	1.35
Best Case: Actually builds a bit from an underachieving Animal Practice, so NBC gives it a full season to see if it can benefit from a pairing with fellow multicam Whitney. It's kinda close but it's gone after one season. 1.55 average. Worst Case: The Free Agents of fall 2012. Huuuge drops from a somewhat promising Animal Practice. 1.05 average and gone after three eps. There are millions of comedy options on the bench, after all. Likeliest: This feels like a pretty clear #4 on NBC's priority list out of their four comedy newbies. The Whitney pairing is potentially intriguing (even if really their only major commonality is being multicam), but it'll have to overachieve just to get to that point. 1.30 and gone by 2013.			Occupants
			Free Agents
			1.10	1.02
			Are You There, Chelsea?
			1.48	1.67
			Best Friends Forever
			0.93	1.11

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		The X Factor	Slot Average
		Premieres September 12	4.06
		Best Case: Britney and Demi are huge draws initially, and they're better at actually doing the work than most people think. A megahit is born; it just took a year longer than it was supposed to. 4.50 average, +18%. Worst Case: Britney and Demi are big draws initially, and they're disastrous at actually doing the work. Early year-to-year gains are more than cancelled out by season's end. Down 13% to a 3.30. Likeliest: I do believe it's gonna be up a little bit early; Britney Spears has been a significant draw in nearly everything she's done on TV, after all. But I can't imagine her actually providing significant entertainment value long-term. Down 10% to a 3.43.	Slot Orig Avg
			4.57
3.81			Occupants
			The X Factor
y2y	Label
	big hit		3.84	3.56
			American Idol
True2	Sitch
3.43	+11%		5.33	5.39
2011-12 Slot
Wednesday 8:00

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		Arrow (NEW!)	Slot Average
			0.52
			Slot Orig Avg
		Premieres October 10	0.69
Best Case: Maybe the CW just needs a hero to believe in, or something. It premieres near TVD levels (1.9ish) and holds up in near-TVD fashion. A network is not singlehandedly revived, but it's a legit start. 1.50 average. Worst Case: Yes, folks, the CW truly is dead. Premieres to just a 1.0, settles at around a 0.60, and... well, still gets a second season. This is the CW, after all. Contingent of course on the CW getting another season. Likeliest: I consider this one of the highest-stakes premieres of the whole season. This is a relatively recognizable comic book name. It should be able to get sampled, and reviews seem decent enough. If not now, when, CW? Being the stupid, stupid optimist that I am, I'm gonna say closer to best than worst. 1.10 average and in a close race for top show on the network.			Occupants
			H8R
			0.50	0.46
			One Tree Hill
			0.76	0.79

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Network to Watch: CW. Lots of newbies on other networks, but I don't think any of them are terribly high priority. There's also Fox banking big on X Factor. But Arrow to me feels almost make-or-break for the whole network.

My Picks: Interest is waning on Survivor, so if I can find a full two tuners out of samplings of the NBC comedies, The Neighbors and Arrow, I might kick my old fave back to the curb. But somehow I doubt that will happen. Most likely Survivor and Arrow.