| bc | Rank | y2y | Rank | TPUT | Rank | bc/TPUT | Rank | |
| Monday 8:00 | 11.6 | 6 | +3% | 2 | 35.8 | 7 | 32% | 8 |
Monday 8/7c had the second-best year-to-year trend out of 21 hours on broadcast (behind only its lead-out Monday 9/8c) thanks to huge growth on the part of CBS with How I Met Your Mother and 2 Broke Girls and NBC with The Voice in the second half. Though the competition percentage is a bit behind several other 8:00 hours later in the week, it's arguably the most competitive 8:00 hour when you throw in the Monday Night Football effect in the fall.
The Shows:
 | Dancing with the Stars | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres September 24 | 2.63 | |||
| Best Case: Armed with an all-star edition and now accustomed to dueling with talent competitions, the bleeding slows considerably. DWTS drops just 5% this fall and hits a 3.12. Worst Case: When a show like this starts dropping heavily, the odds are against that slowing down in any kind of meaningful way. Another -24% to a downright alarming 2.50. Likeliest: I'm just not sold that two music competitions can co-exist long term, but I do think DWTS will drop a lot less than The Voice this fall with the all-stars. I'll say it's down a mere 12% to a 2.90. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 2.80 | ||||
| 3.28 | Occupants | |||
| Dancing with the Stars Fall | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| -24% | hit | 3.32 | 2.85 | |
| The Bachelor Spring | ||||
| True2 | Sitch | |||
| 2.84 | +16% | 2.54 | 2.43 | |
| Dancing with the Stars Spring | ||||
| 2011-12 Slot | ||||
| Monday 8:00 | 2.98 | 3.12 | ||
 | How I Met Your Mother | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres September 24 | 3.33 | |||
| Best Case: Though HIMYM will almost inevitably give back a chunk of its gains from last year, it still ends up ahead of where it was a couple years ago. Down 10% to a 3.65, still big enough for a once-improbable ninth season renewal. Worst Case: No beneficial pairing with 2 Broke Girls, instead a dud lead-out in Partners. No huge inflation due to Charlie Sheen and Ashton Kutcher lifting all boats. It falls back 25% to a 3.06 and finishes its run at season's end. Likeliest: Well, I can't explain why HIMYM grew so much last season, so don't trust me on what to expect this season. But it's gotta come back to earth on some level, right? I'll say a 19% drop to a 3.30, just behind its two-years-ago numbers. The final season announcement comes midway through and it picks up late. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 3.98 | ||||
| 4.06 | Occupants | |||
| HIMYM | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| +20% | big hit | 4.01 | 3.62 | |
| True2 | Sitch | |||
| 3.64 | +12% | |||
| 2011-12 Slot | ||||
| Monday 8:00 | ||||
 | Partners (NEW!) | Slot Average | ||
| 3.52 | ||||
| Slot Orig Avg | ||||
| Premieres September 24 | 4.20 | |||
| Best Case: 2 Broke Girls it certainly ain't, but it's a CBS multicam with some likable people. So why not? Drops a couple ticks from HIMYM but cruises to a back nine and ekes out a season two. 3.20 average. Worst Case: With multiple midseason comedies on the shelf, and nowhere at all to put them, the hook will be quick. Loses big from HIMYM on day one and is gone by November sweeps. 2.40. Likeliest: This certainly doesn't have the positive indicators going in that shows to pop in this slot (2BG, The Big Bang Theory) have, but it doesn't quite feel like a How to Be a Gentleman type of bomb either. I say it airs all 13, maybe gets three or four extra, and is gone by January to make way for a day-after-Super-Bowl launch of Friend Me. 2.70 average. | Occupants | |||
| 2 Broke Girls | ||||
| 4.21 | 3.43 | |||
 | The Voice | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres September 10 | 2.88 | |||
| Best Case: Airing in the fall helps it average a 4.40 demo (-9%) and continue to crush DWTS. Worst Case: The gimmick that seems such a large part of this show's appeal is no longer fresh and new. There's no obvious boost from the Super Bowl. And there's one hell of a drop. It's down 29% to a 3.40 and actually goes a touch behind DWTS by season's end. Likeliest: Hate to do it, but I'm a seller on this show. I just don't really buy that the chairs gimmick (even though I like it) will continue being a huge draw to open every season long-term. It'll remain big, especially for NBC, but it's going down 24% from last year's inflated numbers to a 3.66. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 2.89 | ||||
| 4.82 | Occupants | |||
| The Sing-Off | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| +5% | megahit | 1.56 | 1.38 | |
| Who's Still Standing? | ||||
| True2 | Sitch | |||
| 4.64 | +4% | 1.58 | 1.39 | |
| The Voice Mon | ||||
| 2011-12 Slot | ||||
| Monday 8:00 | 4.82 | 4.64 | ||
 | Bones | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres September 17 | 2.31 | |||
| Best Case: Yeah, it struggled in an 8:00 slot after DST, but who doesn't?! Give it a consistent timeslot and it'll be all right. Drops just 7% to a 2.22 and cruises to yet another renewal. Worst Case: The competing reality competitions hold up OK, CBS is still pretty fierce, and the pairing with The Mob Doctor ain't exactly inspiring. Another -20% to just a 1.91, and Fox reluctantly axes the show. Likeliest: If Fox actually cancels Bones, I'd have to feel like they've done pretty well this season, because right now the drama-starved net will need a lot to go right to make that seem feasible schedule-wise. I say it's renewed barring a major disaster, and Bones ain't exactly in the major disaster business. -13% to a 2.09. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 2.40 | ||||
| 2.39 | Occupants | |||
| Terra Nova | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| -20% | solid | 2.49 | 2.18 | |
| House | ||||
| True2 | Sitch | |||
| 2.28 | +5% | 2.57 | 2.49 | |
| Bones | ||||
| 2011-12 Slot | ||||
| Thu 9:00, Mon 8:00 | 2.13 | 2.32 | ||
 | 90210 | Slot Average | ||
| Premieres October 8 | 0.50 | |||
| Best Case: Riding some interest in the 9:00 shows (a Gossip Girl final season and The Carrie Diaries), 90210 falls just 10% to 0.63 and is renewed with no strings attached. Worst Case: Gossip Girl aired in this slot last year and lost thirty-two percent. I'll go a little easier on the Zip and say just 29% to 0.50. Axed. Likeliest: I'm pretty sure 90210 will get a final season renewal just like almost everything does on this network, and I'm also pretty sure said final season will come after this season. I say it loses another 20%, averages a 0.56, and returns one last time. | Slot Orig Avg | |||
| 0.58 | ||||
| 0.70 | Occupants | |||
| Gossip Girl | ||||
| y2y | Label | |||
| -20% | 0.59 | 0.52 | ||
| True2 | Sitch | |||
| 0.64 | +9% | |||
| 2011-12 Slot | ||||
| Tuesday 8:00 | ||||
Cable:
| Show | Network | Premieres | Avg | y2y |
| Monday Night Football | ESPN | 9/10 | 5.38 | -8% |
| WWE Raw (11-12 avg) | USA | ongoing | 1.70 | |
| Switched At Birth | ABC Fam | 9/3 | 0.77 |
Network to Watch: On the Sunday 7/6c post, I didn't really think there were any networks to watch. This time, too many! DWTS is fading fast, CBS has its only new comedy slot, NBC has The Voice. I'm taking NBC here. As I said, I'm a bit of a seller on the show this year, and things could get supremely ugly at the peacock if The Voice starts to become a problem.
My Picks: Thought it was gonna be a light hour after the upfronts, as only HIMYM and maybe Partners interested me. But now there are two of my favorite cable dramas here too in Alphas (which will run about a month into the regular season) and Switched at Birth!
