Fall 2012 Best Case/Worst Case, Friday 8/7c

The Basics:

	bc	Rank	y2y	Rank	TPUT	Rank	bc/TPUT	Rank
Friday 8:00	5.3	19	-1%	6	28.3	20	19%	19

It's kinda amazing to see so much scripted programming in the second-least viewed hour of primetime. But Friday as a whole was pretty remarkably healthy on a year-to-year basis, so maybe the networks are beginning to see opportunities on this evening.

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		Last Man Standing	Slot Average
		Premieres November 2	1.29
		Best Case: Sure, it struggled late last season, but Friday in the fall is not that much harder than Tuesday post-DST. TGIF is reborn! 1.65. Worst Case: Nearly 40% of this show's audience disappeared in about three and a half months. Tough to come back from that, especially on Friday. Drops more than 50% more to a 1.15. Likeliest: I wasn't a regular viewer, but I will say I'm not a fan of canning the oldest daughter, who I thought was one of the most likable characters. Still, this ABC hour feels like the least burn-offy of the Friday 8/7c options, and I think the pairing with Reba will create a little additional interest. I'll give it a very viable-for-Friday 1.45, and obviously better in the fall.	Slot Orig Avg
			1.36
2.42			Occupants
			Extreme Makeover: Home Edition
y2y	Label
	solid		1.13	1.23
			Shark Tank
True2	Sitch
2.31	+4%		1.61	1.99
2011-12 Slot
Tuesday 8:00

		Malibu Country (NEW!)	Slot Average
			1.37
			Slot Orig Avg
		Premieres November 2	1.46
Best Case: Reba McEntire's previous sitcom was among the CW's most viewed even when the network was trying to bury it in the freaking Sunday 7:00 hour! People just plain love Reba. 1.75, among the very strongest Friday shows. Worst Case: Maybe people love Reba, but they're not going to love this show once they see it for what it is. This stab at TGIF feels just a little too retro, and (like with Last Man last year) initial interest quickly dies. 1.15. Likeliest: Again, I feel like if any of these scripted shows are going to work on Friday night, it's this pair of relatively old-skewing, family-skewing comedies. I actually think Reba is a relatively legit draw, and I still think they should've put her in the 8:00 slot instead. A sleeper success that builds from LMS to 1.55 and scores a second season.			Occupants
			Extreme Makeover: Home Edition
			1.13	1.23
			Shark Tank
			1.61	1.99

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		CSI: NY	Slot Average
		Premieres September 28	1.35
		Best Case: It takes a small dip in the 8:00 hour, but it's still a solid scripted option to lead off the night. Down 7% for the second straight year to a 1.50, but it still gets cancelled. Worst Case: The way NY ended last year ratings-wise was downright scary, and the 8:00 hour will only compound the problem. Down 20% to a Gifted Man-esque 1.30 and a no-brainer cancellation. Likeliest: It would be pretty stunning if NY makes it into 2013-14. Some were stunned that it even made it into this year, and the momentum was certainly not on CBS' side late last spring. I say it loses 14% to 1.40 and is dunzo.	Slot Orig Avg
			1.49
1.62			Occupants
			A Gifted Man
y2y	Label
-7%	flop		1.28	1.39
			Undercover Boss
True2	Sitch
1.87	-13%		1.78	2.22
2011-12 Slot
Friday 9:00

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		Whitney	Slot Average
		Premieres October 19	0.92
		Best Case: Well, Whit handled a tough situation in better-than-expected fashion last year. So why not this year? Manages a pretty respectable 1.25 average and scores a back nine (and perhaps a midweek slot). Worst Case: Chuck couldn't average a 1.0 demo on Friday and you're telling me freaking Whitney is going to? Loses almost 50% to a 0.95. Likeliest: This was a show that I felt deserved its renewal, but Friday is not going to do a younger-skewing relationship comedy any favors. I think it's a bit stronger than Chuck when it got moved here, but I don't see this ending particularly well. 1.05.	Slot Orig Avg
			0.98
1.87			Occupants
			Chuck
y2y	Label
	marginal		0.96	1.06
			Who Do You Think You Are?
True2	Sitch
1.80	+4%		1.03	1.34
2011-12 Slot
Thu 9:30, Wed 8:00

		Community	Slot Average
		Premieres October 19	0.92
		Best Case: Community was greatly undervalued on Thursday. It had one of the toughest situations on TV, so it doesn't really mind a Friday move that much. The new showrunners do a very competent job. Down a measly 22% to 1.20. Worst Case: This Whitney and Community pairing is just nonsensical, and a creatively disappointing Community does, well, what burn-offs do. It's down almost 50% to a 0.85. Likeliest: Again, I don't think the show's really any weaker than Chuck was a year ago coming into its Friday move, but no Dan Harmon and a really suspect pairing just don't feel that promising. I think it averages a 1.05 and loses out on a midseason Thursday slot.	Slot Orig Avg
			1.00
1.54			Occupants
			Chuck
y2y	Label
-17%	flop		0.96	1.06
			Who Do You Think You Are?
True2	Sitch
1.77	-13%		1.03	1.34
2011-12 Slot
Thursday 8:00

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		Touch	Slot Average
		Premieres October 26	1.38
		Best Case: For some reason, "It's Kiefer Sutherland" turns out to be a legit reason to renew a show. For most of the season, it looked a lot stronger than The Finder, so it stays well ahead of that show's Friday pace and ekes out a back nine. 1.35. Worst Case: By season's end, The Finder was basically hitting Alcatraz and Finder-esque True2 scores, but it's not able to hold up as well in a Friday move. 0.95 and gone by midseason. Likeliest: Touch was basically another The Finder by season's end, and it really only got renewed because it was fortunate enough to be the last drama to hit those levels. I'll give it exactly what The Finder did, a 1.07. Loses out on a midseason slot (even if I'm not really sure what it loses out to).	Slot Orig Avg
			1.36
2.23			Occupants
			Kitchen Nightmares
y2y	Label
	marginal		1.48	1.64
			The Finder
True2	Sitch
1.97	+13%		1.07	1.48
2011-12 Slot
Thu 9:30, Wed 8:00

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		America's Next Top Model	Slot Average
		Premiered August 24	0.45
		Best Case: The spring 2012 season premiered with a 0.5 and actually grew from that average-wise by season's end. So we'll say it goes up a bit from the premiere's 0.4 to a 0.45. That's still down (*gulp*) 47% year-to-year. Worst Case: All the creative changes do not go over well, and subsequent weeks alternate between 0.4 and (*gulp*) 0.3. 0.35 average. Likeliest: This one's a bit of a cheat on my part since I actually got to see last week's premiere numbers. I don't rule out the show picking up to 0.5 on a couple occasions, but I think 0.4 is gonna be pretty much the norm in the show's probable last cycle. 0.41, down by over 50%.	Slot Orig Avg
			0.51
0.85			Occupants
			Nikita
y2y	Label
-35%			0.50	0.57
True2	Sitch
0.75	+13%
2011-12 Slot
Wednesday 9:00

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Cable:

Show	Network	Premieres	Avg	y2y
Friday Night Smackdown! (2011-12 avg to date)	Syfy	ongoing	0.86

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Network to Watch: ABC. There's a surprising volume of relatively big-name shows and/or people in the hour, but I feel the other networks are really taking a, "Let's throw our last show(s) renewed here and see what happens" approach. I think ABC with its multicams is actually trying to establish something. If it works, it will create an interesting logjam on the evening, as ABC will have these shows, Shark Tank, and the primetime hour of Nightline (currently locked into the 9/8c hour starting March 1).

My Picks: Till November, just Shark Tank. After Shark Tank moves, probably just Community, though I may try the other comedies again.