Spotted Ratings, Monday 3/19/12: Declining with the Stars

WHAT MATTERS:

• ABC's newest season of Dancing with the Stars took an expectedly massive year-to-year hit in its first-ever airing against The Voice. If historical trends are any indication, expect the season to settle at 3.0 or lower. But despite the lower numbers, DWTS was still a boon to Castle, which scored better numbers than in any of its last six airings (all of which were without a DWTS lead-in).

• As for The Voice, it too took a hit and has now shed 1.6 points (or 26%) in the last two weeks. Smash then dropped a couple ticks at 10/9c but remained in a pretty close three-way race with Castle and Hawaii Five-0.

• CBS' sitcoms were weaker than usual against the return of Dancing, but Two and a Half Men and Mike and Molly were technically up from their last originals against the Daytona 500.

• Fox was left behind, as House returned in horrific fashion (0.4 behind any previous result) and Alcatraz stayed even despite a much bigger lead-in than last week. Its two-hour season (and probably series) finale is next week.

FULL TABLE:

Info				Show				Timeslot		TRUE
	Viewers	A18-49	Skew	Last	LeLa	Avg	Rank	Tavg	Lead
Dancing with the Stars Mon	18.79	3.5	24%	n/a	n/a	n/a	1/1	+32%	n/a	3.82
Castle	11.52	2.3	26%	+10%	+35%	-2%	8/18	-4%	-34%	1.92
How I Met Your Mother	8.15	3.5	55%	-3%	n/a	-18%	18/19	-17%	n/a	3.93
2 Broke Girls	9.38	3.5	48%	-8%	-3%	-23%	19/19	-21%	+0%	3.81
Two and a Half Men	11.47	3.8	42%	+6%	-8%	-29%	18/19	-29%	+9%	3.77
Mike and Molly	9.71	3.1	41%	+7%	+6%	-21%	17/18	-24%	-18%	3.06
Hawaii Five-0	9.31	2.5	34%	+0%	+7%	-15%	18/19	-15%	-19%	2.21
The Voice	11.95	4.6	49%	-12%	n/a	-22%	7/7	+65%	n/a	5.10
Smash	6.56	2.2	43%	-8%	-12%	-19%	7/7	+44%	-52%	1.62
House	5.94	2.1	45%	-13%	n/a	-24%	14/14	-18%	n/a	2.27
Alcatraz	5.04	1.6	41%	+0%	+91%	-32%	9/10	-38%	-24%	1.51
America's Next Top Model Spring (R)	0.75	0.3	51%	+0%	n/a	+0%	1/3	-51%	n/a	0.26
Hart of Dixie (R)	0.67	0.2	38%	+100%	+0%	-35%	10/13	-71%	-33%	0.18

KEY (click to expand)

Viewers - The total number of viewers (age 2+, in millions) that watched the program.
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of the total audience that falls in the 18-49 demo.
Last - A18-49 percent difference from previous episode.
Lead - A18-49 percent difference from lead-in program.
LeLa - A18-49 percent difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Avg - A18-49 percent difference from the show's average demo for previous original episodes this season.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes that have aired so far this season.
Tavg - A18-49 percent difference from its timeslot's previous original entertainment average this season.
TRUE - True Strength, a metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. (Note: these are PRELIMINARY TRUE calculations. Finals come next week.)

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.