You Deserve It
Mondays, 9/8c, ABC
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
ABC True Power Rankings, November 2011
Welcome to the inaugural True Power Rankings! I'm just going to line up the shows of each network by their season average to date in my TRUE metric (through November 27). I don't think there's enough interesting stuff to do these with any regularity, so my tentative plan is to do them at the beginning and end of each sweeps period. (Meaning the next one would come in late January.) Future editions will perhaps be glammed up a bit and likely incorporate an unscripted category, but with much of that stuff rolling out at midseason, there just aren't enough of those shows to create a good hierarchy just yet.
FYI, these will replace the "True Bubble" posts I've done on a couple occasions in the past. Basically the same idea, except I'm throwing everything in rather than just the bubble shows. ABC's out today, then two more networks each of the next two days.
I guess I don't read enough power rankings articles to know if this is commonplace, but I really liked the "division" setup that Bill Simmons uses, so I'm stealing it. Mine are a lot less clever.
Other networks: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | The CW
FYI, these will replace the "True Bubble" posts I've done on a couple occasions in the past. Basically the same idea, except I'm throwing everything in rather than just the bubble shows. ABC's out today, then two more networks each of the next two days.
I guess I don't read enough power rankings articles to know if this is commonplace, but I really liked the "division" setup that Bill Simmons uses, so I'm stealing it. Mine are a lot less clever.
Other networks: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | The CW
Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 11/29/11: Poorly-Kept Secret
WHAT MATTERS:
- It's been a pretty good year for special programming, but perhaps the biggest surprise yet was the massive and record-setting performance by the Victoria's Secret Fashion Show at 10:00. CBS also got a small uptick out of what remains the dominant holiday classic, Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer. They sandwiched NCIS, which was the biggest repeat for a drama this season to date.
- With CBS' regular programming and ABC's Dancing with the Stars out of the picture, most other stuff was on the upswing. The Biggest Loser tied a season high and Parenthood was up double-digits, while Fox's Glee and New Girl hit or matched best-since-baseball numbers. Body of Proof held up pretty decently in its first without-Dancing airing.
- The bad news on this Tuesday belonged to Last Man Standing (which I'm guessing matches up worse with the Glee and Rudolph double-whammy than with last week's X Factor and NCIS) and Ringer, whose fall finale disappointingly tied a series low.
The True Top 25, Week Ending 11/27/11 (2011-12 Week Ten)
Football's back on top of the True Top 25 in what's really the first week with a significant number of original lineups preempted. In what I've been using as a benchmark for the "strength" of the week in general, just 14 shows topped a 3.00 TRUE; that's the lowest number this season. However, CBS Monday was in originals yet again, so its shows have their usual significant presence near the top. Despite losing Dancing with the Stars as competition, Two and a Half Men posted its Truly best number in seven weeks. It was the top scripted show in TRUE for the first time in eight weeks thanks to The Big Bang Theory being in repeats and Modern Family taking a bit of a hit on Thanksgiving Eve.
Even though it was in repeats, Big Bang still has a presence high on this list, and its TRUE number actually slightly topped that huge Halloween Modern Family repeat (3.93 TRUE) to become the season's Truly biggest encore. But I do want to note again that I think the number's a little inflated because of its proximity to CBS' high-rated Thanksgiving afternoon football game. For reference, if you give Big Bang a 5.00 lead-in, its number would be a 3.55 instead.
Finale week of Dancing with the Stars did well relatively speaking, posting two of its three Truly biggest telecasts of the season.
Even though it was in repeats, Big Bang still has a presence high on this list, and its TRUE number actually slightly topped that huge Halloween Modern Family repeat (3.93 TRUE) to become the season's Truly biggest encore. But I do want to note again that I think the number's a little inflated because of its proximity to CBS' high-rated Thanksgiving afternoon football game. For reference, if you give Big Bang a 5.00 lead-in, its number would be a 3.55 instead.
Finale week of Dancing with the Stars did well relatively speaking, posting two of its three Truly biggest telecasts of the season.
Spotted Ratings, Saturday 11/26/11 (FINALS)
WHAT MATTERS:
- ABC dominated Saturday even though Saturday Night Football's matchup between Notre Dame and Stanford was below average. The other originals were solid, with 48 Hours Mystery tying a season high and Cops above average and hitting its second-best number in the 8:00 hour this season.
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Spotted Ratings, Friday 11/25/11 (FINALS)
WHAT MATTERS:
- Another night filled with movies and specials saw the big four all relatively bunched together demo-wise. Iron Man had the top demo and (preliminarily) 20/20 the top TRUE.
Spotted Ratings, Thursday 11/24/11 (FINALS)
WHAT MATTERS:
- The 8:00 hour was relatively crowded on this Thanksgiving evening. The Big Bang Theory got great repeat ratings, but keep in mind that in most of the country it aired only about 25 minutes after the end of a close NFL game that was likely well into the double-digits. Just for reference, if it had an average 5.0 TRUE lead-in, the Big Bang preliminary TRUE below would've been a 3.56 instead.
- On a night with relatively Friday/Saturday-esque PUT levels, Fox and ABC both did fairly well with holiday specials, and it's kinda interesting to note that the beginning of Fox's brand-new Peanuts special aired opposite the tail end of ABC's classic Peanuts special A Charlie Brown Thanksgiving.
Spotted Ratings, Monday 11/28/11
WHAT MATTERS:
- Probably the most important thing going on was the performance of Fox's Terra Nova and House with massive drops in competition; Dancing with the Stars and CBS originals were out of the way. They didn't capitalize, up just a tick apiece and down in the preliminary TRUE numbers. Not a good sign.
- Week two of ABC's You Deserve It lost nearly half of its premiere total viewership as its Dancing with the Stars lead-in was replaced with much younger-skewing holiday special Shrek the Halls. It dropped "just" 18% in the demo but to a very weak number.
- CBS' Monday was one of the last lineups on TV had that been all-new every single week of the TV season to date. That streak's over, as it went into repeats and yet still won the night, led by 2 Broke Girls.
Demos Year-to-Year, November Sweeps 2011 Week Four Winners/Losers
As I usually do with my year-to-year posts, at the end of each week I take a look at the biggest of the big gainers and losers among adults 18-49. You can click the "y2y summaries" label to see the various forms those have taken in past sweeps. This time, back to looking at the top 5 gainers and losers.
Top 5 year-to-year show losers
1. Chuck (F 8-9pm vs. M 8-9pm) -47%
2. America's Next Top Model (clips) (W 9-10pm vs. W 8-9pm) -43%
3. Fringe (F 9-10pm vs. Th 9-10pm) -42%
4. 20/20 -30%
5. The Biggest Loser: Where Are They Now? -29%
Just spitballing here, but here's a theory: perhaps as television franchises head into the toilet, the non-essential "specials" that come along with them become even less important. Case in point: the fast-declining The Biggest Loser and even faster-declining America's Next Top Model both saw their Thanksgiving Eve specials (one a clip show, one a "Where Are They Now?") take even bigger drops than the seasons as a whole generally have. 20/20 was crushed on Friday at 10/9c by a couple shows up at least 25% year-to-year. (See below.)
Top 5 year-to-year show losers
1. Chuck (F 8-9pm vs. M 8-9pm) -47%
2. America's Next Top Model (clips) (W 9-10pm vs. W 8-9pm) -43%
3. Fringe (F 9-10pm vs. Th 9-10pm) -42%
4. 20/20 -30%
5. The Biggest Loser: Where Are They Now? -29%
Just spitballing here, but here's a theory: perhaps as television franchises head into the toilet, the non-essential "specials" that come along with them become even less important. Case in point: the fast-declining The Biggest Loser and even faster-declining America's Next Top Model both saw their Thanksgiving Eve specials (one a clip show, one a "Where Are They Now?") take even bigger drops than the seasons as a whole generally have. 20/20 was crushed on Friday at 10/9c by a couple shows up at least 25% year-to-year. (See below.)
Monday, November 28, 2011
Demos Year-to-Year, Wednesday 11/23/11
Another four weeks of Demos Year-to-Year have come to an end. The week four summary will go live tomorrow morning, and then it'll be back in two months!
Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 11/23/11 (FINALS)
WHAT MATTERS:
- Thanksgiving Eve is always one of the more interesting days of the TV ratings season because we get to see how full-fledged originals perform in a heavily viewing-depressed environment. The only totally "full-strength" network this time was ABC, whose originals were all down a fairly consistent 14 to 19% from the previous originals and at season lows. The big takeaway: as these shows have grown, they have become more resilient to the holiday effect. In season one, Modern Family and The Middle were each down about 30% from their previous originals! In season two (last year), they were both down over 20%.
- The other originals were also at lows and down in that general vicinity, with Up All Night 21% off its last original and The X Factor down 16% from its last Thursday results show. We'll see how the TRUE numbers look when I get the half-hourlies later this week, but it looks like most shows avoided taking huge hits in that metric.
- Special programming like NBC's Biggest Loser special and Mobbed were pretty weak, with the former way down from last year's 1.7 rating.
Spotted Ratings, Sunday 11/27/11
WHAT MATTERS:
- ABC's Once Upon a Time returned from a week off and Truly topped the night among entertainment programs (it was a bit behind football-fueled 60 Minutes in raw numbers). It was still down double-digits from its relatively steady pre-hiatus levels.
- It wasn't alone in dropping off, as every single Fox comedy also hit a new season low, and most of them by multiple tenths. The bottom definitely fell out for Allen Gregory, which does not necessarily seem a cinch to air its last two episodes any more.
- The Hallmark Hall of Fame franchise made its debut on ABC with Mitch Albom's Have a Little Faith, which only got around half of the typical numbers for the franchise on CBS at this time of year.
Friday, November 25, 2011
Thursday, November 24, 2011
A Very Spotty Thanksgiving
In terms of writing and editing, this blog is very much a one-man show. But there are lots of other things that have gone into making this blog happen, and on this American day of thanksgiving, I thought it was past time I recognize the people behind those things.
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 11/22/11
WHAT MATTERS:
- It'll probably be one of the last "full-strength" days of 2011, and it was quite a competitive one. Fox brought The X Factor back over to Tuesday, and while it was the second-weakest airing yet for the show (and weakest non-Thursday), it did overall make Fox a bit stronger than usual. But X's typical growth in the 9/8c hour was stalled by the two-hour finale of Dancing with the Stars. Said finale was down more than 20% from last year, but that's pretty much been the norm all season.
- With Fox and DWTS stronger than usual, it was ugly elsewhere. CBS took a weirdly large hit, with NCIS and NCIS: Los Angeles both at least three tenths weaker than any previous airing this season. NBC's Biggest Loser was also below average against the reality glut. And with ABC much stronger than usual at 10:00, Unforgettable also hit a low and Parenthood hit a new season low. 90210 hit an outright series low.
The True Top 25, Week Ending 11/20/11 (2011-12 Week Nine)
For the first time in four weeks, there's a scripted show on top of the True Top 25, and it's the same one that's been dominating this metric (among scripted shows) for many weeks now. This is the last mostly "normal" week of 2011, so enjoy seeing what has settled down as a mostly predictable hierarchy for one last time.
As I said, most of this is fairly predictable now, but one thing that seems noteworthy in the last few weeks is the rise of some of the ":30" sitcoms; Happy Endings used to not be able to make this list at all, and Mike and Molly hit another best-ever TRUE this week. Rules of Engagement has also been stronger in recent weeks than any other time in the last couple years. Perhaps the extended exposure with huge lead-ins is actually helping those shows in meaningful ways.
As I said, most of this is fairly predictable now, but one thing that seems noteworthy in the last few weeks is the rise of some of the ":30" sitcoms; Happy Endings used to not be able to make this list at all, and Mike and Molly hit another best-ever TRUE this week. Rules of Engagement has also been stronger in recent weeks than any other time in the last couple years. Perhaps the extended exposure with huge lead-ins is actually helping those shows in meaningful ways.
Spotted Ratings, Saturday 11/19/11 (FINALS)
WHAT MATTERS:
- With most networks back in repeat mode and ABC airing a couple thrilling upsets (most of the country got USC's upset of Oregon and then the tail end of Baylor over Oklahoma), it was all about ABC on this evening as Saturday Night Football hit its highest regular season numbers in three years. The telecast built in a huge way throughout, and by far the biggest numbers came after primetime. (The only primetime half-hour rating above the full 3.4 average was the 3.5 at 10:30, while the other in-prime half-hours got just 2.4 -> 2.7 -> 2.7 -> 3.0.)
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Schedule Five-Spot, WE 11/20/11 - Rules of Engagement, A Gifted Man, Survivor, Dexter, South Park
Phew! The news just seems to come in bunches. This one is mostly about CBS' midseason announcements but touches on a couple other things too. Here's my third and final Schedule Five-Spot for the week ending November 20, 2011:
Rules of Engagement - OK, so I know CBS likes to be particularly retentionista with their comedies, but does Rules of Engagement really deserve to have its episode count trimmed? I don't have any delusions that the show is Truly as strong as its raw numbers indicate, but my metric still has the show a little stronger than most of CBS' second tier of mostly "safe" dramas. If an expansion of comedy is nigh (and it should be), I'd want to have this around.
Spotted Ratings, Monday 11/21/11
WHAT MATTERS:
- ABC's new game show You Deserve It did mediocre at best even before the downward adjustments in finals. After finals, it looks really ugly, with the show losing more than half of the Dancing with the Stars demo. Good luck next week with DWTS over. Castle then perked back up decently in the first of its annual crappy-lead-in tests.
- All of CBS' lineup came down a bit. The biggest drop belonged to Hawaii Five-0, which was a bit inflated last week because it didn't have to face usual drama competition Castle.
- Terra Nova continues to descend toward cancellation, down yet another two ticks in relatively "normal" circumstances and matching its series low set on low-HUT Halloween. The only positive looking forward is that there will be less competition for the show's closing weeks. It's probably got to rebound to have a chance, and maybe in a big way.
Ratings Five-Spot, WE 11/20/11 - How I Met Your Mother, Once Upon a Time, Glee, The Office, Nikita
With lots of new episodes but very few premieres in November, this week's Ratings Five-Spot at SpoilerTV takes a look at some general trends I've noticed during this November sweep period. If you've been following my Demos Year-to-Year end-of-week summaries, you've probably noticed me hint at all of this stuff before. But I take this opportunity to flesh out those trends a little more. Check it out!
The Five-Spots are my recaps of what aired, what got renewed/cancelled and what rated well or poorly last week in TV. For more Five-Spots, see the Index.
The Five-Spots are my recaps of what aired, what got renewed/cancelled and what rated well or poorly last week in TV. For more Five-Spots, see the Index.
Monday, November 21, 2011
Schedule Five-Spot, NBC Midseason
Here's the second of three Schedule Five-Spots this week, looking at all of NBC's midseason moves. I looked at ABC's midseason earlier.
New Comedy Flip - I give this one the "good news" color because moving Up All Night to the Thursday lineup and Whitney to Wednesday is shrewd. It still probably should've happened at the upfront. Even at its current below-2.0 level, Up All Night is arguably overachieving on Wednesday, and it's certainly Truly stronger than a Whitney getting similar demos in a much easier timeslot. Meanwhile, newbie Are You There, Chelsea? joins Whitney on Wednesday.
Spotted Ratings, Sunday 11/20/11
WHAT MATTERS:
- I'll wait for finals for most of this stuff, but NBC's football easily topped ABC's American Music Awards (even year-to-year) for supremacy. It was still a relatively disappointing and below-average rating for the game. CBS had the national NFL overrun, which affected the primetime lineup in relatively predictable ways. (First half of the evening up, second half down.)
- Week four of Allen Gregory actually didn't drop that much from last week considering the significant drop from The Simpsons, which didn't have an NFL lead-in for the first time in three weeks. But it's still most likely on the way out; The Cleveland Show scored a 2.6 in the same timeslot the last time The Simpsons was in this ratings vicinity (3.1 on October 2). The Cleveland Show expectedly made its 7:30 debut much weaker than any of its 8:30 or 9:30 airings this season.
Schedule Five-Spot, ABC Midseason
OK kids, there will actually be three Schedule Five-Spots this week, which will hopefully make up for the lack of one last week. I'll look at ABC and NBC midseason today, then do the miscellaneous stuff (mostly but not totally CBS) tomorrow.
Tuesday - ABC's only real "problem night" this season has been Tuesday, where Man Up! has bombed, Body of Proof has underperformed and Dancing with the Stars is leaving the schedule for several months. The Man Up! void will be filled by critically-reviled newbie Work It!, which is at least another multicam, while ABC's main attraction in the twixt-Dancings slot will be short-order drama The River. Meanwhile, Body of Proof gets a small extension to 20 eps total.
Saturday, November 19, 2011
Spotted Ratings, Friday 11/18/11
WHAT MATTERS:
- At least for one week, NBC's Grimm has leveled off. And it finished just a tick behind CSI: NY (up in finals) for 9/8c supremacy. Maybe NBC will order another script or two now...!
- NBC also got an above-average showing from Dateline, which edged 20/20 in the 10/9c newsmagazine war. But it was the also above-average Blue Bloods that won the hour and topped the night overall.
Friday, November 18, 2011
Spotted Ratings, Thursday 11/17/11
WHAT MATTERS:
- ABC got pretty solid business out of its two-hour Private Practice event, which actually rated above the season average (though a bit down from the last airing) despite no Grey's Anatomy lead-in. Its lead-in, a 20/20 special on Regis Philbin, at least did better than most Charlie's Angels airings.
- Fox's The X Factor results seem to have sprung a leak, dropping another couple tenths (said show got a 3.7 just two weeks ago), but at least Bones rebounded a tenth from its huge week two dip.
- The only other notable was The Mentalist, which had a big spike in its last airing two weeks ago but this time fell back in line with its previous few results.
Demos Year-to-Year, November Sweeps 2011 Week Three Winners/Losers
As I usually do with my year-to-year posts, at the end of each week I take a look at the biggest of the big gainers and losers among adults 18-49. You can click the "y2y summaries" label to see the various forms those have taken in past sweeps. This time, back to looking at the top 5 gainers and losers.
Top 5 year-to-year show losers
1. Extreme Makeover: Home Edition (F 8-9pm vs. Su 8-9pm) -68%
2. Chuck (F 8-9pm vs. M 8-9pm) -50%
3. Glee -40%
4. House (M 9-10pm vs. M 8-9pm) -38%
5. Fringe (F 9-10pm vs. Th 9-10pm) -35%
Chuck and Home Edition will always be down because they got moved to Friday; Home Edition's larger drop this week is (at least I think) because it aired a clip show-ish thing this week. Then you have three Fox dramas, all down massively from last year. It hints at something that's been percolating in my brain this week but that I think has been really under-reported; when you think about it, Fox has a surprisingly thin roster of scripted shows moving forward over even the somewhat long term. Glee and House may be around next year but are almost certainly "over" as big tentpoles. They have a still somewhat solid drama in Bones, a couple animation anchors on Sunday, and they admittedly have a promising new comedy in New Girl. And... that's basically it, in terms of stuff you can feel pretty good about. Three of those four are really old shows. What's the future of the network, drama-wise? Something to think about.
Top 5 year-to-year show losers
1. Extreme Makeover: Home Edition (F 8-9pm vs. Su 8-9pm) -68%
2. Chuck (F 8-9pm vs. M 8-9pm) -50%
3. Glee -40%
4. House (M 9-10pm vs. M 8-9pm) -38%
5. Fringe (F 9-10pm vs. Th 9-10pm) -35%
Chuck and Home Edition will always be down because they got moved to Friday; Home Edition's larger drop this week is (at least I think) because it aired a clip show-ish thing this week. Then you have three Fox dramas, all down massively from last year. It hints at something that's been percolating in my brain this week but that I think has been really under-reported; when you think about it, Fox has a surprisingly thin roster of scripted shows moving forward over even the somewhat long term. Glee and House may be around next year but are almost certainly "over" as big tentpoles. They have a still somewhat solid drama in Bones, a couple animation anchors on Sunday, and they admittedly have a promising new comedy in New Girl. And... that's basically it, in terms of stuff you can feel pretty good about. Three of those four are really old shows. What's the future of the network, drama-wise? Something to think about.
Thursday, November 17, 2011
Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 11/16/11
WHAT MATTERS:
- ABC's entire lineup returned from the CMAs preemption on the downswing, with the drop from Suburgatory (easily a series low) perhaps the most worrisome, though it did come up a tenth in finals. Revenge came back down to earth after spiking in its last pre-CMAs episode. The downticks should continue next week as ABC's yearly tradition of airing originals on Thanksgiving Eve continues.
- Meanwhile, with CMA competition out of the way, several other shows (including everything on CBS) got back up to more typical levels. The show seemingly hardest hit last week, Criminal Minds, had the biggest rebound.
SpotVault - Private Practice (ABC) - 2008-09
Private Practice
Wednesdays, 9/8c and Thursdays, 10/9c, ABC
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 11/15/11
WHAT MATTERS:
- After seemingly building some momentum over the last couple weeks, The Biggest Loser squandered it and was back below average. On this real yawner of a day, it was the only big-four show to move by more than a tenth in either direction!
The True Top 25, Week Ending 11/13/11 (2011-12 Week Eight)
The NFL is back on top of the True Top 25, fairly comfortably beating usual scripted champ The Big Bang Theory. With ABC's Modern Family-led lineup out of the mix, Big Bang went basically unchallenged for top scripted honors, but Modern's replacement for the week (The CMA Awards) drastically improved the night as a whole for ABC and ranked a solid third on this list.
Spotted Ratings, Saturday 11/12/11 (FINALS)
WHAT MATTERS:
- Saturday is such a TV graveyard that it's pretty rare these days to even see multiple programs break a 2.0 demo. So this Saturday, on which two programs broke a 3.0 demo, was a highly irregular one. But ABC's well-above average Saturday Night Football between Oregon and Stanford pulled it off alongside Fox's much-ballyhooed broadcast network debut of the UFC. The shows were actually both at 3.0+ head-to-head in the 9:30 half-hour.
- Another note about this Saturday is that the big four networks combined for just one hour of repeat programming, an extremely low number on Saturday these days. Among the remaining originals not mentioned above, only Cops did really well, with perhaps UFC pre-tune dragging it to easily its highest levels of the season. CBS' Republican debate and NBC's Notre Dame blowout couldn't crack a 1.0 demo.
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Spotted Ratings, Monday 11/14/11
WHAT MATTERS:
- The night's biggest intrigue came at 10/9c, where Hawaii Five-0 was above average with all the scripted competition out of the mix. In the newsmagazine struggle between the other two nets, it was ABC's 20/20 with Gabrielle Giffords easily beating NBC's Rock Center with Penn State's Jerry Sandusky. The former dropped huge in finals and actually finished a bit behind Castle's 2.58 to-date average this fall. The latter was at least up from the first two Rock Center airings, but certainly not in any kind of game-changing way.
- There are always some shows whose ratings are just impossible to really get a hold of. Fox's Monday lineup has a couple such shows. The bouncy Terra Nova and House, for the fifth straight original, were up or down (in this case down) by at least 0.3. Most concerning this time, though, is that these drops happened under relatively "regular" circumstances. Most of the previous blips for these shows had stuff like Halloween or an MLB overrun to blame. But, I mean, tough to rule out them bouncing right back up next week...
- All of CBS (including the aforementioned Five-0) was on the upswing, with comedies How I Met Your Mother, 2 Broke Girls and Mike and Molly joining Five-0 in posting their best ratings since their premiere nights.
Spotted Ratings, Friday 11/11/11 (FINALS)
WHAT MATTERS:
- Week three of Grimm looked worse in the preliminaries but got adjusted up in finals to a 1.6. That's still 11% weaker than last week, but the show's still a clear Friday success if it can stabilize here. (And, based on NBC's midseason announcement, a Friday success it would apparently remain...)
- Also taking big dips were Blue Bloods, which came back down to earth after its huge spike last week, and Fringe, which hit a new series low. Extreme Makeover: Home Edition was also irregularly weak, but apparently that was some kind of clip show, so I won't read too much into it.
Monday, November 14, 2011
SpotVault - Rules of Engagement (CBS) - 2010-11
Rules of Engagement
Mondays, 8:30/7:30c and Thursdays, 8:30/7:30c, CBS
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