Today, my fall preview looks at Thursday 10/9c. ABC and CBS both have programs that have been in the timeslot for multiple years; NBC will once again try to get a foothold.
DIFFICULTY
This timeslot rated somewhat easy in 2010-11. Shows in this timeslot had slightly positive to significantly positive Sitches.
HISTORY
ABC
You can check previous iterations of this post below for ABC's extremely checkered post-Grey's history in the early years. The last of those lead-outs was '70s cop drama Life on Mars in fall 2008. It got moved to Wednesday for a post-Lost tryout (a better fate than most of those Grey's lead-outs). Since then, the timeslot has been much more stable thanks to Grey's spinoff Private Practice, which was fading on Wednesday in late 2008 and came over to this hour for a boost. No doubt it got one, and it's been in this hour ever since. It averaged a 2.67 in originals last season.
CBS
One of the most iconic three-hour blocks of TV in recent memory was CBS' Survivor/CSI/Without a Trace Thursdays. It briefly left for 2006-07, then returned for a year, then departed for good in fall 2008. Newbie Eleventh Hour took over for most of the season, then horror dud Harper's Island and crime repeats saw some late-season action. In 2009-10, CBS brought new Tuesday hit The Mentalist over to this night, apparently dubbing it the heir apparent to CSI's status as the night's signature drama. Perhaps it hasn't gotten up to that level, but it's still been one of broadcast's strongest 10:00 shows. Its originals averaged a 2.91 last season.
NBC
This was, of course, the very long-term home of medical drama ER, which aired in the timeslot from its second episode all the way back in 1994 through the series finale in 2009. They went with new cop drama SouthLAnd at the end of '08-'09 after ER finally aired its series finale, but it only lasted a short season NBC before migrating to TNT for a decent run. In 2009-10, The Jay Leno Show had the timeslot for the first half of the season, then NBC got rather mixed results out of new reality effort The Marriage Ref. In the fall, it was the return of the original recipe version of The Apprentice to completely disastrous results, so then NBC expanded its comedy block to three hours starting in early 2011 with 30 Rock and Outsourced. Though that comedy block actually did OK, NBC's getting back out of the 10:00 hour for comedy in 2011-12. In this timeslot, NBC returns to drama for the first time in three seasons with newbie Prime Suspect.
CABLE NOTABLES
As last year, MTV's Jersey Shore is going to be a major factor for the first few weeks of the broadcast season (and beat the broadcast options). Then MTV revives their '90s animation program Beavis & Butt-Head along with newbie Good Vibes beginning on October 27. FX also has comedy with veteran It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia and season three of lead-out The League. USA brings back one of its strongest dramas Burn Notice in early November.
PREDICTIONS
Private Practice - 2.32 (-13% from last year)
The Mentalist - 2.70 (-7%)
Prime Suspect - 2.00
WHAT I'M WATCHING
Will give Prime Suspect a try, but my main interests are Burn Notice and It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia. You?
Previous Thursday 10/9c posts: 2009 | 2010
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