The "True" Bubble, The CW

Now that I have a full (if not final) formula for True Strength, it's time to emerge from the depths of my massive spreadsheet and start actually doing something with it. I thought I'd start by examining the bubble shows on each network and see what True Strength has to say about the shows that got renewed and axed. Last up: CW.

CW Shows	A18-49	TRUE	Sitch
Supernatural	0.99	1.11	-11%
One Tree Hill	0.85	0.91	-6%
90210	0.87	0.85	+2%
Gossip Girl	0.86	0.74	+16%
Nikita	0.87	0.71	+23%
Hellcats	0.74	0.61	+23%
Life Unexpected	0.71	0.58	+23%

This doesn't apply to a large extent in other posts, but I should note that my True Strength spreadsheet only covers the official regular season. That doesn't matter for most of the other posts, but it does a little bit here since most CW shows premiere early.

Anyway, using official regular season numbers only, the CDub had four dramas with almost identical A18-49 averages but that are separated to some extent when run through the True Strength wringer. One Tree Hill led off the night in a very competitive timeslot, while Nikita had the benefit of a huge lead-in and Gossip Girl didn't have a ton of competition comparitively.

Hellcats was clearly a step down from the pack, and you can thank its late-season collapse for that. As of the end of 2010, it was almost neck-and-neck with Nikita (0.77 for Nikita vs. 0.76 for Hellcats).