Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 8/30/11 (FINALS)

WHAT MATTERS:

• Well, there's not a whole lot of ratings boringness left this summer, but the late-summer Tuesdays have become particularly dull. America's Got Talent (3.1) led the way but came back down to earth a bit after last week's big spike. Wipeout repeats (2.0) continue to show some rare late-season muscle, but the show's original lead-outs Take the Money and Run (1.5) and cancelled Combat Hospital (0.9) each dropped a notch.

Above based on FINAL adults 18-49 ratings unless otherwise noted.

22 Fall TV Matchups, Wednesday 9/8c

Today, my fall preview looks at Wednesday 9/8c. ABC's Modern Family has changed the game in this hour the last couple years; will The X Factor do the same this year?

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 8/28/11 (FINALS + Video Music Awards)

WHAT MATTERS:

• NBC ruled the broadcast evening thanks to preseason football (3.2), and the game was the second-highest-rated of the preseason trailing only last week's NBC telecast. The peacock did get a weak showing at 7:00 from the "Madden NFL 12 Pigskin Pro-Am" special (0.8).

• Elsewhere on broadcast, Big Brother (3.0) was the top entertainment program by far but down a couple tenths from last week, while week two of ABC's 20/20: The Sixth Sense specials (1.6) picked up by three tenths. Week three of Fox's In the Flow with Affion Crockett (1.0) inched down again.

• The biggest story of the evening by far was another record audience for MTV's Video Music Awards (6.2 A18-49 and 12.445 million viewers overall). It capped off an amazing week for MTV, which also had a hugely-rated 7:00 episode of Jersey Shore (4.4) earlier in the evening. That Shore ep was up about 50% from the one that led into the VMAs last year. Throw in the VMA pre-show (3.6) and Thursday's Jersey Shore (4.5) and MTV had the week's top four 18-49 programs on broadcast or cable!

Above based on FINAL adults 18-49 ratings unless otherwise noted.

Spotted Ratings, Saturday 8/27/11 (FINALS)

These Saturday posts won't be too much more exciting in the regular season, so may as well get back in the habit now...

WHAT MATTERS:

• Sports dominated this evening, with CBS' NFL preseason between New England and Detroit (1.8) topping ABC's NASCAR Sprint Cup Series (1.3).

• Repeats on NBC and Fox failed to crack a 1.0 demo in any half-hour; Fox's 8:30 Cops (0.9) was closest.

Above based on FINAL adults 18-49 ratings unless otherwise noted.

Spotted Ratings, Monday 8/29/11 (FINALS)

Just a couple weeks away from things getting interesting again! For now...

WHAT MATTERS:

• Hell's Kitchen (2.9) tied a season high as Fox also got a pretty solid number out of the 8:00 repeat of Hell's (1.7) and won the night overall.

• NBC got a better-than-usual Nielsen at 10/9c thanks to a Dateline interview with Dick Cheney (1.4).

Above based on FINAL adults 18-49 ratings unless otherwise noted.

22 Fall TV Matchups, Tuesday 9/8c

Today, my fall preview looks at Tuesday 9/8c. All of the big four bring something back to the hour that they had here last season, so most of the ratings focus will be on hyped newbies New Girl and Ringer.

Spotted Ratings, Friday 8/26/11 (FINALS)

WHAT MATTERS:

• Though CBS' preseason NFL game (2.0) was a lot stronger than the last two Fridays' games on Fox, most other shows were also up week-to-week. That included burnoffs Karaoke Battle USA (1.0), which actually hit a new high in week three, and Friends with Benefits (0.7 and 0.6), which rallied from a couple weeks of 0.5's to tie its premiere ratings. Newsmagazines Dateline (1.4) and 20/20 (1.3) were also on the upswing.

Above based on FINAL adults 18-49 ratings unless otherwise noted.

22 Fall TV Matchups, Monday 9/8c

Today, my fall preview looks at Monday 9/8c, a tough hour last season that figures to get even tougher as a couple strong shows should help last year's weak nets.

22 Fall TV Matchups, Sunday 8/7c

Today, my fall preview looks at Sunday 8/7c. Much like 7, Sunday at 8 is filled with staples that have been around for awhile, but ABC and Fox both look to shake things up a bit later this fall.

22 Fall TV Matchups, Saturday 8/7c

Today, my fall preview looks at Saturday 8/7c. Saturdays have mostly been dead for good-faith original scripted programming for a while now, but the arrival of Rules of Engagement this fall could be interesting.

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 8/25/11 (FINALS + Jersey Shore)

WHAT MATTERS:

• Coming into this evening, there was only one night on which Big Brother hadn't broken a 3.0 demo this season. Now there are none, as Big Brother (3.1) hit a new Thursday high and finished tied for the season's second-strongest effort overall.

• ABC's lineup crashed from preliminary numbers, and Wipeout (1.6) also crashed by 0.3 week-to-week. Expedition Impossible (1.3) in its finale and Rookie Blue (1.2) were both flat week-to-week.

• The night's biggest story was Jersey Shore (4.5), which tied its second-highest 18-49 rating ever and hit a new high for season four. I'd say it's on its way to winning the whole week in A18-49 again, but it may actually lose out to a fellow MTV show: the Video Music Awards on Sunday.

Above based on FINAL adults 18-49 ratings unless otherwise noted.

22 Fall TV Matchups, Friday 8/7c

Today, my fall preview looks at Friday 8/7c. The death of scripted originals on Friday night may soon be upon us. For now, three of five nets are still trying.

The "True" Bubble, The CW

Now that I have a full (if not final) formula for True Strength, it's time to emerge from the depths of my massive spreadsheet and start actually doing something with it. I thought I'd start by examining the bubble shows on each network and see what True Strength has to say about the shows that got renewed and axed. Last up: CW.

List of Fall Preview Specials, 2011 Edition

Each year, most/all broadcast networks produce a half-hour special that previews their fall lineup, usually focusing heavily on the new shows. These specials are pretty low-profile and usually not very entertaining, but I find the various odd ways they're scheduled kinda interesting. Here's the info on this year's editions:

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 8/24/11 (FINALS): Buried Nielsens

Hey, everybody had originals again!

WHAT MATTERS:

• Fox premiered reality show Buried Treasure (1.0) to weak results. I believe this is the weakest weeknight series premiere of the summer. And as noted over on TVByTheNumbers, this premiere result pales in comparison to similar shows on cable like History's Pawn Stars and American Pickers.

• Tuesday's big rally for America's Got Talent continued on Wednesday (2.9), with that edition up four tenths from last Wednesday's telecast. Lead-in Minute to Win It (1.5) also gained a couple ticks to its biggest summer number yet, while the 10:00 repeat of Law & Order: SVU (1.5) actually improved by a tenth on last week's finale of Love in the Wild.

• ABC had a summer original of Happy Endings (1.3), which did better than recent repeats but tied the show's original series low (a 10:30 episode on 5/18/11). Leading out was ABC's primetime Nightline (1.4), hitting a new summer high.

• CBS' Big Brother (2.9) still tied for the night's top program but came back down to earth a bit from last week's highest-since-2007 number (a number since exceeded on Sunday).

Above based on FINAL adults 18-49 ratings unless otherwise noted.

22 Fall TV Matchups, Thursday 8/7c

Today, the fall preview moves to Thursday 8/7c. Fox's surprise decision to move American Idol to the timeslot meant the regulars all took a hit; will it be the same way with X Factor in town?

The "True" Bubble, Fox

Now that I have a full (if not final) formula for True Strength, it's time to emerge from the depths of my massive spreadsheet and start actually doing something with it. I thought I'd start by examining the bubble shows on each network and see what True Strength has to say about the shows that got renewed and axed. Next up: Fox.

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 8/23/11 (FINALS)

WHAT MATTERS:

• As the Tuesday competition begins to clear out (Fox's MasterChef ended yesterday, USA's dramas a week ago) the leftovers took advantage. The biggest mover was America's Got Talent (3.3), picking up a half point from last week and reversing much of its huge slide in recent weeks.

• Also benefiting was ABC's lineup, especially the repeat of Wipeout (2.0), which actually matched its original rating of two weeks ago and was up four tenths from last week's encore. The boost spilled over into Take the Money and Run (1.6, up two tenths) and Combat Hospital (1.0, up a tick). But it's small consolation for Combat Hospital, which was cancelled earlier today.

Above based on FINAL adults 18-49 ratings unless otherwise noted.

22 Fall TV Matchups, Wednesday 8/7c

Today, my fall preview looks at Wednesday 8/7c. This was one of the weakest timeslots on TV for several years, but the double-whammy arrivals of Survivor and American Idol last season have actually transformed it into one of the toughest.

The "True" Bubble, NBC

Now that I have a full (if not final) formula for True Strength, it's time to emerge from the depths of my massive spreadsheet and start actually doing something with it. I thought I'd start by examining the bubble shows on each network and see what True Strength has to say about the shows that got renewed and axed. Next up: NBC.

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 8/21/11 (FINALS)

WHAT MATTERS:

• Even in the preseason, the Dallas Cowboys can draw. Their preseason NFL game against San Diego (3.7) became the season's new highest-rated NFL preseason game and was also the week's top broadcast program (trailing just Jersey Shore (4.2) overall).

• Also impressing was CBS' Big Brother (3.2), which hit yet another new season high and yet another highest point since 2007. The show edged Wednesday's Big Brother and Thursday's NFL game to be the second-strongest broadcast show of the week in 18-49. Leading out was a repeat of The Good Wife (0.7), which CBS put in the hour in place of original Same Name this week. The show did less than half the demo of the last Same Name and its Big Brother retention was a shockingly low twenty-two percent. Admittedly, Big Brother and The Good Wife do not scream compatibility.

• ABC introduced a series of 20/20 specials to Sunday (1.3), and the show easily exceeded the net's previous Castle/Body of Proof combo in the hours.

• Week two of Fox's original In the Flow with Affion Crockett (1.1) was actually up a tick from last week's 9:30 telecast, but that's likely because of the bigger 9:30 lead-in. It's down two tenths from last week's 9:00 premiere which similarly led out of Family Guy.

Above based on FINAL adults 18-49 ratings unless otherwise noted.

Spotted Ratings, Saturday 8/20/11 (FINALS)

Doing my first Saturday post in three months just to note some major adjustments from preliminaries.

WHAT MATTERS:

• NBC's broadcast of the Visa Gymnastics Championships (0.8) came down four tenths from its preliminary 1.2 number due to local NFL preemptions. However, the event was still up a couple tenths from last year's 0.6 on 8/14/10.

• ABC had a rebroadcast of Disney Channel's Phineas and Ferb movie (0.5 and 2.0 million viewers overall), which trailed most recent ABC movie offerings and seems another piece of evidence that kid programming doesn't really belong in broadcast primetime. The movie averaged 7.64 million viewers in its first-run telecast a couple weeks ago.

• Since I haven't been talking Saturday this summer, just wanted to note that Fox has been experimenting with animation reruns in the old America's Most Wanted timeslot. As has been the case most Saturdays, this week's choices American Dad! (0.6) and The Cleveland Show (0.6) did significantly worse than the Cops encores at 8/7c (0.9 and 1.0). This fall, the hour will go to reruns of new drama Terra Nova.

Above based on FINAL adults 18-49 ratings unless otherwise noted.

Spotted Ratings, Monday 8/22/11 (FINALS)

WHAT MATTERS:

• Both of the reality staples on the evening dropped multiple ticks week-to-week, with Bachelor Pad (1.9) now down four tenths from its two-weeks-ago premiere and Hell's Kitchen (2.5 at 8:00, 2.7 at 9:00) down three tenths from last week on average but actually four tenths if just comparing 8:00 vs. 8:00 telecasts.

• The most interesting thing on this Monday in broadcast was NBC's special airing of G4 series American Ninja Warrior (1.7), which vastly exceeded my expectations and was much more on the map than NBC's usual Law & Order and Harry's Law reruns in these hours this summer. Not sure it really means anything, but I think NBC should try it again sometime. If these results are actually sustainable, maybe they can move it over to the mother net as they once did with USA's Nashville Star.

Above based on FINAL adults 18-49 ratings unless otherwise noted.

22 Fall TV Matchups, Tuesday 8/7c

Today, my fall preview looks at Tuesday 8/7c. Glee joined the hour last fall and was one of TV's strongest shows despite heavy competition; are big drops inevitable, or can it possibly hold off NCIS for another year?