WEEK ONE
Happy Endings debuted with a special airing after Modern Family at 9:30 and then a regularly-scheduled episode at 10:00. I'm gonna go with the average rating of the two, which was a 2.5 demo. That broke down as a 2.8 at 9:30 and a 2.3 at 10:00. (15-minute breakdowns indicated it was closer to 2.5 than 2.6, btw.) My feeling about it was that it was nothing special either way. The 2.5 average took a 36% dive from the 3.9 demo of Modern Family, but almost everything that's aired after Modern has dropped significantly. The drop from 2.8 to 2.3 at the half wasn't great either, but it's fairly typical of a show coming out of a big lead-in.
WEEK TWO
Week two then consisted of a regular 10:00 airing and a special 10:30 episode. Those two averaged a 1.7 demo, down 32% from the week one average. The lead-in this time was a mere 2.3 demo from Cougar Town, but a 26% drop from Cougar Town's mediocre showing is probably a significantly worse performance than a 36% drop from Modern Family.
PROGNOSIS
The thing that seems to be most working in this show's favor is its network's almost comical ineptitude in the Wednesday 10:00 timeslot the last couple seasons. If timeslot improvement means anything at all to networks, then a ~1.7 demo (if it can stay there) is a lot better than most recent occupants and will have to be considered. The relative lack of precedent for sitcoms in the 10:00 hour might also help the show from an expectations standpoint. One thing seems clear: if this show's gonna meet expectations, the expectations will have to be low. I'm gonna say no to season 2; I think a 1.7 might give the show a shot, but it's tough to look at the week two drop and have much confidence that it'll even stay there. I'd like to see one more data point before I make up my mind, though.
SYSTEM (explanation)
WEEK ONE (tiers worth 4, 2, 0 points)
Bob's Burgers 4.5
$#*! My Dad Says 4.0
Hawaii Five-0 3.9
Mike & Molly 3.9
Mr. Sunshine 3.7
The Event 3.6
Outsourced 3.6
Breaking In 3.5
Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior 3.3
No Ordinary Family 3.2
Law & Order: Los Angeles 3.2
Hellcats (3.2)
Body of Proof 3.1
Raising Hope 3.1
Mad Love 3.0
The Defenders 2.9
Blue Bloods (2.8)
Nikita (2.7)
The Cape 2.6
Better with You 2.5
HAPPY ENDINGS 2.5
Running Wilde 2.4
The Chicago Code 2.4
Off the Map 2.3
Chase 2.3
Outlaw 2.3
Detroit 1-8-7 2.3
Harry's Law 2.2
Undercovers 2.1
Perfect Couples 2.1
Traffic Light 1.9
My Generation 1.6
The Whole Truth 1.5
Chaos (1.4)
Lone Star 1.3
Friday premieres = 1.25 * A18-49
CW premieres = 1.5 * W18-34
WEEK TWO (tiers worth 2, 1, 0 points)
Raising Hope even
Harry's Law -5%
Mike & Molly -5%
Mad Love -7%
Hawaii Five-0 -8%
Chase -9%
Detroit 1-8-7 -9%
Off the Map -9%
Blue Bloods -9%
Better with You -12%
The Defenders -14%
No Ordinary Family -16%
The Chicago Code -17%
Nikita -17%
$#*! My Dad Says -18%
Chaos -18%
Hellcats -19%
Perfect Couples -19%
The Event -19%
The Whole Truth -20%
Running Wilde -21%
Outsourced -22%
Body of Proof -23%
Lone Star -23%
Undercovers -24%
Law & Order: Los Angeles -25%
Breaking In -26%
Traffic Light -26%
Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior -27%
Mr. Sunshine -30%
The Cape -31%
My Generation -31%
HAPPY ENDINGS -32%
Bob's Burgers -44%
Outlaw -52%
EXCELLENT (5-6 points): Hawaii Five-0, Mike & Molly (6 points), The Event, $#*! My Dad Says, No Ordinary Family, Outsourced (5 points)
BORDERLINE (3-4 points): Law & Order: Los Angeles, Raising Hope, Blue Bloods, Bob's Burgers, Better with You, Mr. Sunshine, Mad Love, Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior, The Defenders, Breaking In (4 points), Running Wilde, Nikita, The Chicago Code, Hellcats, Body of Proof (3 points)
IN TROUBLE (0-2 points): Off the Map, Detroit 1-8-7, Chase, The Cape, Harry's Law, HAPPY ENDINGS (2 points), The Whole Truth, Perfect Couples, Chaos (1 point), Outlaw, Undercovers, My Generation, Lone Star, Traffic Light (0 points)
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