Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 3/9/11: Repeat Lead-ins Bury New Shows

Note: I've spent some serious time with my spreadsheet today and added some additional info. "CoLa," which is basically "change in competition," joins. I've given "HUT" its own table just to illuminate how big the margin of error on these estimates can be at times. Maybe some day I'll be a heavyweight and be able to get viewing level info sent to me, but for now all I can provide are these estimates. Tomorrow I'm going to finally do the big post that explains more about what the numbers are and when/why I think they're useful and start linking each daily post to that post (so I can significantly shrink the "KEY" below).

WHAT MATTERS:

• The two new shows with typically huge lead-ins took a big hit without 'em. Mr. Sunshine dropped more than 20% out of a Modern Family repeat while Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior lost 15% week-to-week after a Criminal Minds repeat. And the weak Sunshine helped drive Off the Map down another 18% to a 1.4. All three hit outright series lows.

• American Idol dominated the mostly-repeat field, drawing 58% of the broadcast 18-49 eyeballs in its timeslot (up from ~50% last week). Most repeats were below average. 

• CW's Top Model rallied; it's back at its (still shaky) week one levels. (Shedding for the Wedding dropped in finals, eliminating its rally.)

FULL TABLE:

	A18-49	Share	Last	Lead	LeLa	Comp	CoLa	bcShr	Avg	Rank
The Middle (R)	1.4	4	-22%	n/a	n/a	13.4	n/a	9	-19%	8/9
The Middle (R)	1.4	4	0%	0%	0%	13.4	0%	9	-18%	8/10
Modern Family (R)	2.3	6	-34%	64%	-60%	11.2	n/a	17	1%	3/10
Mr. Sunshine	1.8	5	-25%	-22%	-44%	11.2	44%	14	-34%	5/5
Off the Map	1.4	4	-18%	-22%	-25%	3.6	-14%	28	-25%	9/9
Survivor	3.2	9	-3%	n/a	n/a	11.6	0%	22	0%	2/4
Criminal Minds (R)	1.8	5	-22%	-44%	39%	11.5	n/a	14	-9%	5/6
Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior	2.2	7	-15%	22%	-50%	2.8	-15%	44	-20%	4/4
Minute to Win It	1.0	3	0%	n/a	n/a	13.8	10%	7	-39%	10/13
Law & Order: SVU (R)	0.9	2	-44%	-10%	0%	12.4	187%	7	-41%	10/10
Law & Order: SVU (R)	1.4	4	56%	56%	-10%	3.6	-71%	28	-5%	7/11
American Idol Wed	8.1	23	4%	n/a	n/a	5.9	-24%	58	-6%	6/8
America's Next Top Model	1.1	3	22%	n/a	n/a	13.7	-2%	7	10%	1/3
Shedding for the Wedding	0.4	1	0%	-64%	22%	12.9	-2%	3	-11%	2/3

VIEWING LEVELS: 

Slot	Min HUT	Calc HUT	Max HUT
8-9pm	33.2	35.2	38.2
9-10pm	34.0	36.3	41.1
10-11pm	30.0	33.3	34.6
8-10pm	34.3	35.7	36.2

KEY
A18-49 - From Nielsen. Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Share - From Nielsen. Adults 18-49 share. Percentage of US TV-watching adults 18-49 watching the program.
Lead - Calculation. Percent difference from lead-in program.
Last - Calculation. Percent difference from previous episode.
LeLa - Calculation. Percent difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Comp - Calculation. Competition. Total rating of all broadcast programs airing against it.
CoLa - Calculation. Percent difference between the show's competition and its competition for the previous episode.
bcShr - Calculation. Broadcast share. Percentage of US national big-5 broadcast TV-watching adults 18-49 watching the program.
Avg - Calculation. Percent difference from the show's average demo for previous episodes this season.
Rank - Calculation. The rating's rank among the show's original episodes that have aired so far this season.

Min HUT - Calculation. The smallest percentage of TV-owning adults 18-49 that could possibly be watching any TV in the timeslot.
Calc HUT - Calculation. An estimate of the percentage of TV-owning adults 18-49 watching any TV in the timeslot using all of the ratings/shares. Formerly "HUT."
Max HUT - Calculation. The largest percentage of TV-owning adults 18-49 that could possibly be watching any TV in the timeslot.

(R) = Regular-night repeat. These are ranked/averaged as if they were normal shows.
(oR) = Other-night repeat. These are not ranked/averaged in any way.

Stats in blue are less accurate because I count every program as if it maintains that same rating/share throughout each half-hour of the broadcast. That is almost always not the case in reality, so the overlap sometimes creates inaccuracies.

Source: TravisYanan

More Wednesday Spotted Ratings.