First Two Weeks, Off the Map

OFF THE MAP (ABC)



WEEK ONE
ABC's Off the Map premiered to a fairly weak 2.3 demo, but that was probably screwed up a bit by the scheduling wackiness surrounding President Obama's address of the shooting in Tucson. That pushed the new Modern Family to 9:20 and left the Off the Map lead-in for most of the country as a partial (ten-minute) rerun of Modern Family. Still, those ten minutes of Modern did average a 3.4 demo, certainly higher than an original Cougar Town would've gotten in those last ten minutes, so read into it what you will.

WEEK TWO
In a statistical oddity that nobody outside of my household probably cares about, Off the Map became the third show this season to premiere with exactly a 2.3 demo and then drop to exactly a 2.1 demo in week two (joining Detroit 1-8-7 and Chase). Throw in last year's Mercy and it's the fourth in two years! As in all those other cases, that means a 9% drop, well better than average among new shows.

PROGNOSIS
With three recent exact precedents, this would seem easy to predict. But it isn't necessarily a no-brainer, because 9% is a pretty small drop, and at a 2.1 demo Off the Map would have a good shot at a renewal. After all, ABC's airing a full Tuesday night of dramas that can't hit that mark. All three of the previous 2.3 -> 2.1 shows were fall efforts that got an extension beyond the initial 13-episode order but no season 2 (well, at least I'm assuming Chase and Detroit won't, but that seems pretty safe). That's the direction I'd have to lean with Off the Map, except that it's a midseason show and that's not an option. I'm torn, especially considering how weak all of ABC's other new dramas are and the chance upcoming lead-in Mr. Sunshine will do well, but I'll lean slightly toward no season 2. A 2.3 is just a bit too low of a starting point.

SYSTEM (explanation)

WEEK ONE (tiers worth 4, 2, 0 points)
Bob's Burgers 4.5
$#*! My Dad Says 4.0
Hawaii Five-0 3.9
Mike & Molly 3.9
The Event 3.6
Outsourced 3.6
No Ordinary Family 3.2
Law & Order: Los Angeles 3.2

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Hellcats (3.2)
Raising Hope 3.1
The Defenders 2.9
Blue Bloods (2.8)
Nikita (2.7)
The Cape 2.6 
Better with You 2.5 
Running Wilde 2.4

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Off the Map 2.3
Chase 2.3
Outlaw 2.3
Detroit 1-8-7 2.3
Undercovers 2.1
My Generation 1.6
The Whole Truth 1.5
Lone Star 1.3

Friday premieres = 1.25 * A18-49
CW premieres = 1.5 * W18-34

WEEK TWO (tiers worth 2, 1, 0 points)
Raising Hope even
Mike & Molly -5%
Hawaii Five-0 -8%
Chase -9%
Detroit 1-8-7 -9%
Off the Map -9%
Blue Bloods -9%
Better with You -12% 

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The Defenders -14%
No Ordinary Family -16%
Nikita -17%
$#*! My Dad Says -18%
Hellcats -19%
The Event -19%
The Whole Truth -20%
Running Wilde -21%

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Outsourced -22%
Lone Star -23%
Undercovers -24%
Law & Order: Los Angeles -25%
The Cape -31% 
My Generation -31%
Bob's Burgers -44%
Outlaw -52%

EXCELLENT (5-6 points): Hawaii Five-0, Mike & Molly (6 points), The Event, $#*! My Dad Says, No Ordinary Family (5 points)
BORDERLINE (3-4 points): Law & Order: Los Angeles, Better with You, Outsourced, Raising Hope, Blue Bloods, Bob's Burgers (4 points), The Defenders, Nikita, Hellcats, Running Wilde (3 points)
IN TROUBLE (0-2 points): Detroit 1-8-7, Chase, The Cape, Off the Map (2 points), The Whole Truth (1 point), Outlaw, Undercovers, My Generation, Lone Star (0 points)