WEEK ONE
David E. Kelley's legal drama Harry's Law kicked off with a 2.2 demo, which makes it NBC's second-weakest premiere of the season (only a tick behind Outlaw and Chase but just a tick ahead of Undercovers). It's not as bad as it might seem, as it built on the 1.8 demo for lead-in The Cape where other NBC premieres in this area (Outlaw, Chase) actually declined sharply from their lead-ins. "More importantly," at least if you believe the online discourse, is the P2+ number: over 11 million viewers saw this show's premiere.
WEEK TWO
Week two provided some encouragement, as it took just a 5% drop to a 2.1 demo and built even more heavily on The Cape (which declined to a 1.6). That drop is the smallest percentage drop by a new broadcast drama this season and the second-smallest by any show.
PROGNOSIS
Very few big-four non-Friday shows premiere this low and stick around; in fact, the only one in the last three years to premiere lower and get renewed was ABC's Better Off Ted (2.1). But the week two performance, the performance relative to the lead-in, and the fact that NBC may well be facing a new drama 0-fer otherwise (if The Event shows no life in its return and the Law & Order: LA problems continue) all work in this show's favor. Do the large total viewer counts (still over 10 million as of week 2) help? Doubtful. The reality is that at a 2.0+ (maybe even a bit below) the show's gonna get renewed anyway because it has good enough demos by NBC standards, but if you want to credit the huge 50+ audience, have at it. There are certainly scenarios where the total viewers wouldn't save it, like if it dropped to a 1.3 demo or so but still had 8 million viewers; I'm sorta morbidly rooting for that scenario just because it'd be a nice teaching moment. But who am I kidding, the people I'd like to teach would inevitably just say, "NBC IZ STOOPID!!!" Or maybe it would be renewed and I'd be the stupid one. Anyway... I'm leaning renewal with what we have now (going against "the system") but I don't quite have the confidence of the people dazzled by the viewer counts.
SYSTEM (explanation)
WEEK ONE (tiers worth 4, 2, 0 points)
Bob's Burgers 4.5
$#*! My Dad Says 4.0
Hawaii Five-0 3.9
Mike & Molly 3.9
The Event 3.6
Outsourced 3.6
No Ordinary Family 3.2
Law & Order: Los Angeles 3.2
Hellcats (3.2)
Raising Hope 3.1
The Defenders 2.9
Blue Bloods (2.8)
Nikita (2.7)
The Cape 2.6
Better with You 2.5
Running Wilde 2.4
Off the Map 2.3
Chase 2.3
Outlaw 2.3
Detroit 1-8-7 2.3
Harry's Law 2.2
Undercovers 2.1
My Generation 1.6
The Whole Truth 1.5
Lone Star 1.3
Friday premieres = 1.25 * A18-49
CW premieres = 1.5 * W18-34
WEEK TWO (tiers worth 2, 1, 0 points)
Raising Hope even
Harry's Law -5%
Mike & Molly -5%
Hawaii Five-0 -8%
Chase -9%
Detroit 1-8-7 -9%
Off the Map -9%
Blue Bloods-9%
Better with You -12%
The Defenders -14%
No Ordinary Family -16%
Nikita -17%
$#*! My Dad Says -18%
Hellcats -19%
The Event -19%
The Whole Truth -20%
Running Wilde -21%
Outsourced -22%
Lone Star -23%
Undercovers -24%
Law & Order: Los Angeles -25%
The Cape -31%
My Generation -31%
Bob's Burgers -44%
Outlaw -52%
EXCELLENT (5-6 points): Hawaii Five-0, Mike & Molly (6 points), The Event, $#*! My Dad Says, No Ordinary Family (5 points)
BORDERLINE (3-4 points): Law & Order: Los Angeles, Outsourced, Raising Hope, Blue Bloods, Bob's Burgers (4 points), The Defenders, Nikita, Hellcats, Better with You (3 points)
IN TROUBLE (0-2 points): Detroit 1-8-7, Chase, The Cape, Off the Map, Running Wilde, Harry's Law (2 points), The Whole Truth (1 point), Outlaw, Undercovers, My Generation, Lone Star (0 points)
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