WEEK ONE
The premiere of Bob's Burgers was yet another of the big premieres of the 2010-11 season to be mostly helped along by a huge lead-in. The Simpsons hit a season-high 5.7 demo following an NFL playoff game, then Bob's Burgers followed with a 4.5 demo. That made it the season's largest premiere to date.
WEEK TWO
The bigger they are, the harder they fall? Burgers plummeted two full percentage points to a 2.5 demo just a week later, a 44% drop that ranks as the second-largest of the season to date. Like fellow huge dropper Outlaw, that was largely due to a drastic change in lead-in; The Simpsons didn't have an NFL playoff game and so it only pulled a 3.1 demo itself. Despite the vastly different circumstances, the retention of the Simpsons lead-in was almost unchanged; it kept 79% of its 8:00 lead-in in week one and 81% in week two.
PROGNOSIS
While the lead-in retention percentage improved slightly in week two, I think the week two performance was still a much worse one; a drop from the huge number for The Simpsons on premiere night was almost inevitable as people filed away from the NFL game. The question is whether Burgers can make enough inroads to oust one of the existing modest retention shows (Cleveland Show and American Dad!). Right now, Burgers is retaining at almost exactly the same level as Cleveland has at 8:30 (it's held 80% of The Simpsons on average to date this season). Since we're just two weeks in, I'm gonna assume that gets worse for Bob and say this one is done, but I'm not totally sold either way just yet.
SYSTEM (explanation)
WEEK ONE (tiers worth 4, 2, 0 points)
Bob's Burgers 4.5
$#*! My Dad Says 4.0
Hawaii Five-0 3.9
Mike & Molly 3.9
The Event 3.6
Outsourced 3.6
No Ordinary Family 3.2
Law & Order: Los Angeles 3.2
Hellcats (3.2)
Raising Hope 3.1
The Defenders 2.9
Blue Bloods (2.8)
Nikita (2.7)
Better with You 2.5
Running Wilde 2.4
Chase 2.3
Outlaw 2.3
Detroit 1-8-7 2.3
Undercovers 2.1
My Generation 1.6
The Whole Truth 1.5
Lone Star 1.3
Friday premieres = 1.25 * A18-49
CW premieres = 1.5 * W18-34
WEEK TWO (tiers worth 2, 1, 0 points)
Raising Hope even
Mike & Molly -5%
Hawaii Five-0 -8%
Chase -9%
Detroit 1-8-7 -9%
Blue Bloods -9%
Better with You -12%
The Defenders -14%
No Ordinary Family -16%
Nikita -17%
$#*! My Dad Says -18%
Hellcats -19%
The Event -19%
The Whole Truth -20%
Running Wilde -21%
Outsourced -22%
Lone Star -23%
Undercovers -24%
Law & Order: Los Angeles -25%
My Generation -31%
Bob's Burgers -44%
Outlaw -52%
EXCELLENT (5-6 points): Hawaii Five-0, Mike & Molly (6 points), The Event, $#*! My Dad Says, No Ordinary Family (5 points)
BORDERLINE (3-4 points): Better with You, Outsourced, Raising Hope, Blue Bloods, Bob's Burgers (4 points), The Defenders, Nikita, Hellcats (3 points)
IN TROUBLE (0-2 points): Law & Order: Los Angeles, Detroit 1-8-7, Chase (2 points), The Whole Truth (1 point), Outlaw, Undercovers, My Generation, Lone Star, Running Wilde (0 points)
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