Why the Metered Markets REALLY Suck

I try not to make any judgments about anything (OK, except Lone Star) based on the metered market results that usually start showing up around 9:00am Eastern time, because 1) they're not very accurate and 2) they're based on household measurements, not on the all important A18-49 demo. But this year it's even more of a folly than usual, at least when making year-to-year comparisons, because this year's metered market results are based on Live + Same Day DVR numbers while last year's were based on Live only. That's caused people to be incredibly optimistic based on the early numbers pretty much throughout premiere week, only to be crushed when everything takes its rather normal year-to-year drop when the demos come out.

I like to think my reply to a thread this morning on PIFeedback helped raise awareness about this, as already today it's been mentioned at TVByTheNumbers, while Marc Berman at Mediaweek, the guy who makes a lot of the metered market stuff available at PIFeedback, has now proclaimed he'll put a disclaimer about the Live + SD vs. Live comparisons in his daily columns. There's probably something or someone else who really deserves that credit (and props to PIF poster TVfanatic71, who I assume works in the biz, for bringing it up in the first place) but I'm takin' it anyway! In the meantime, just know that all those metered market household numbers should be taken with an even more massive grain of salt than usual.