The War of 18-49, The Bachelor/Bachelorette

 
THE BACHELOR/BACHELORETTE (ABC)

Scheduling history: Most of the Bachelor/Bachelorette seasons have aired on Monday, including the first season in 2002 and everything from 2005 forward. But the franchise had its strongest early seasons after it moved to Wednesday in the 2002-03 season. 2002-03 was the first of three straight years in which The Bachelor/ette ran three cycles per regular season, with The Bachelor in the fall/spring and The Bachelorette in the winter.

See (who saw) how it all began: The series premiere of The Bachelor on 3/25/02 managed 9.9 viewers and a 4.0/9 in adults 18-49, which was a fine start for an ABC show during the tough early 2000's, but a relatively modest number considering the heights the show would soon achieve. It built to a 4.4 demo in week two, a 4.6 in week three, and continued upward until the season 1 finale managed 18.19 million viewers and a 7.3/17 demo.

The best of times: For many years, the 2002-03 season was clearly the peak of the Bachelor phenomenon, with three of the series' four highest-rated cycles, as well as the highest-rated cycle for each different time of the year (fall, winter, spring). No other airing has even come within 20% of the season 2 finale on 11/19/02, which scored a huge 11.9/28 demo, but the first season of the Bachelorette was probably the most consistently strong season in franchise history, including a premiere (8.4/20 demo on 1/8/03) that was 40% stronger than any other season premiere for the franchise. But when adjusting for the decline of broadcast ratings in general, some of those records are beginning to fall nearly 15 years later. The winter 2017 season set a new high in A18-49+ for the franchise, and winter 2019 topped it again. The winter 2020 season was the first to shatter the 200 Plus megahit label.

The worst of times: By the end of those three years of three cycles, the ratings erosion was considerable, especially in the 2004-05 season which was otherwise brilliant for ABC. Though plenty of people have listed the shows that failed to capitalize on the Lost lead-in, one that often gets left out is the very first: The Bachelor, whose season 6 after the first season of Lost was much weaker than any previous cycle. The show moved to Monday after that weak season, and for the 2005-06 season there was just one cycle for the franchise, a winter run for The Bachelor. The show got back onto a fall/spring schedule for the next two seasons, but ratings continued to sputter, bottoming out with season 12 in spring 2008. The 2014 Bachelorette season was the lowest in raw numbers for three full years, finally beaten by the 2017 season (which got as low as a 1.2 for a Tuesday airing on 6/27/17).

Then vs. now: After that weak season 12, a couple adjustments to the formula created a pretty remarkable turnaround for The Bachelor/ette. First, The Bachelorette returned (it had been dormant for about 3.5 years) as a summer show, and the franchise was skedded as a summer/winter program, filling in the first couple hours of Monday between Dancing with the Stars cycles. Second, and perhaps most importantly, was the adoption of a "continuing storyline" concept in which the star of each season was someone scorned by the star of a previous season. The show had done this in the past with The Bachelorette, but not The Bachelor. They began it again with the Bachelorette revival in summer 2008 and have used it for each cycle since, peaking with single dad Jason Mesnick's season in 2009. That was the highest-rated cycle in a whooping five years, something you just don't see too often in primetime these days. The momentum continued from there, with the 2010 Bachelor season only barely down and The Bachelorette growing in 2009 and 2010. It appeared to be back on the downturn after two Bachelor seasons each dropping more than 20% year-to-year, but yet another turnaround came with the winter 2013 season, which didn't have to face The Voice. The Bachelor has since grown in Plus again in 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017, with The Bachelorette having a big renaissance of its own in 2015 and 2016.

The Bachelor

Adults 18-49 info by season:

Seas	Year	Slot	Avg	y2y	Lo	Hi	Results	Grade
1	Spring 2002	Monday 9:00	4.83		3.6	7.3	detail
2	Fall 2002	Wednesday 9:00	7.87		4.9	11.9	detail
3	Spring 2003		Wednesday 9:00	5.99	+24%	4.7	7.2		detail
4	Fall 2003		Wednesday 9:00	6.44	-18%	4.8	8.8		detail
5	Spring 2004		Wednesday 9:00	5.22	-13%	4.2	6.0		detail
6	Fall 2004		Wednesday 9:00	3.71	-42%	3.3	4.1		detail
7	Spring 2005	Monday 9:00	3.52	-33%	2.9	3.9	detail
8	Winter 2006	Monday 10:00	4.14	+18%	2.7	5.1	detail
9	Fall 2006		Monday 10:00	3.27		2.7	3.9		detail
10	Spring 2007		Monday 10:00	3.82	-8%	3.4	4.8		detail
11	Fall 2007		Monday 10:00	3.52	+8%	3.2	4.2		detail
12	Spring 2008		Monday 10:00	2.71	-29%	2.3	3.2		detail
13	Winter 2009	Monday 8:00	4.11	+52%	3.1	6.7	detail
14	Winter 2010		Monday 8:00	4.08	-1%	3.3	5.3		detail
15	Winter 2011		Monday 8:00	3.26	-20%	2.7	4.7	detail	C
16	Winter 2012		Monday 8:00	2.57	-21%	2.2	3.3	detail	C-
17	Winter 2013		Monday 8:00	2.75	+7%	2.3	3.8	detail	B+
18	Winter 2014		Monday 8:00	2.56	-7%	2.2	3.8	detail	B+
19	Winter 2015		Monday 8:00	2.33	-9%	1.5	2.8	detail	B
20	Winter 2016		Monday 8:00	2.36	+1%	2.0	2.9	detail	A
21	Winter 2017		Monday 8:00	2.30	-2%	1.8	2.7	detail	A
22	Winter 2018		Monday 8:00	1.74	-24%	1.1	2.2	detail	C
23	Winter 2019		Monday 8:00	1.86	+7%	1.5	2.4	detail	A
24	Winter 2020		Monday 8:00	1.82	-2%	1.3	2.5	detail	A+
25	Winter 2021		Monday 8:00	1.34	-26%	1.1	1.5	detail	C+
26	Winter 2022		Monday 8:00	0.81	-40%	0.7	1.1	detail	D+
27	Winter 2023		Monday 8:00	0.58	-28%	0.4	0.7	detail	C
28	Winter 2024		Monday 8:00	0.63	+9%	0.5	0.8	detail	A

Historical-adjusted ratings by season:

Seas	Year	A18-49+	Label	Now24	y2y	Lo	Hi	Premiere	Finale
1	Spring 2002	112	solid	0.43		84	170	93	84
2	Fall 2002	180	big hit	0.68		112	272	112	176
3	Spring 2003	137	hit	0.52	+22%	108	165	114	108
4	Fall 2003	159	big hit	0.60	-12%	118	217	148	138
5	Spring 2004	129	hit	0.49	-6%	103	148	128	148
6	Fall 2004	91	marginal	0.35	-43%	81	101	91	93
7	Spring 2005	86	marginal	0.33	-33%	71	96	91	71
8	Winter 2006	102	solid	0.39	+18%	66	126	66	99
9	Fall 2006	87	marginal	0.33		72	104	82	72
10	Spring 2007	101	solid	0.38	-1%	90	127	98	106
11	Fall 2007	106	solid	0.40	+23%	97	127	106	127
12	Spring 2008	82	marginal	0.31	-19%	70	97	97	70
13	Winter 2009	137	hit	0.52	+67%	103	223	103	223
14	Winter 2010	145	hit	0.55	+6%	117	188	117	188
15	Winter 2011	128	hit	0.49	-12%	106	185	114	177
16	Winter 2012	109	solid	0.41	-15%	93	140	102	123
17	Winter 2013	131	hit	0.50	+20%	109	180	109	166
18	Winter 2014	136	hit	0.52	+4%	117	202	143	175
19	Winter 2015	139	hit	0.53	+2%	89	167	131	167
20	Winter 2016	162	big hit	0.61	+17%	137	199	151	199
21	Winter 2017	188	big hit	0.71	+16%	147	220	171	220
22	Winter 2018	159	big hit	0.60	-16%	103	205	137	205
23	Winter 2019	195	big hit	0.74	+23%	157	257	157	241
24	Winter 2020	222	megahit	0.84	+14%	162	301	228	265
25	Winter 2021	208	megahit	0.79	-6%	174	231	206	231
26	Winter 2022	158	big hit	0.60	-24%	127	218	165	218
27	Winter 2023	136	hit	0.51	-14%	103	152	152	148
28	Winter 2024	165	big hit	0.63	+22%	140	211	140	155

The Bachelorette

Adults 18-49 info by season:

Seas	Year	Slot	Avg	y2y	Lo	Hi	Results	Grade
1	Winter 2003	Wednesday 9:00	7.85		6.0	9.3	detail
2	Winter 2004		Wednesday 9:00	5.24	-33%	4.1	6.2		detail
3	Winter 2005	Monday 9:00	3.95	-25%	3.4	5.0	detail
4	Summer 2008	Monday 8:00	2.54		1.8	3.7	detail
5	Summer 2009		Monday 8:00	2.63	+3%	2.1	3.5		detail
6	Summer 2010		Monday 8:00	2.98	+14%	2.5	3.8		detail
7	Summer 2011		Monday 8:00	2.44	-18%	1.7	2.8	detail	D+
8	Summer 2012		Monday 8:00	2.42	-1%	1.9	3.1	detail	B+
9	Summer 2013		Monday 8:00	1.98	-18%	1.7	2.6	detail	C
10	Summer 2014		Monday 8:00	1.73	-13%	1.4	2.1	detail	C+
11	Summer 2015		Monday 8:00	1.96	+13%	1.6	2.5	detail	A
12	Summer 2016		Monday 8:00	1.95	0%	1.4	2.5	detail	A
13	Summer 2017		Monday 8:00	1.60	-18%	1.2	2.1	detail	C
14	Summer 2018		Monday 8:00	1.47	-8%	1.2	1.8	detail	B+
15	Summer 2019		Monday 8:00	1.54	+5%	1.1	2.1	detail	A
16	Fall 2020	Tuesday 8:00	1.31		1.0	1.7	detail	B+
17	Summer 2021	Monday 8:00	0.94		0.8	1.3	detail
18	Fall 2021	Tuesday 8:00	0.67	-48%	0.6	0.8	detail	D
19	Summer 2022	Monday 8:00	0.77	-18%	0.7	0.9	detail
20	Summer 2023		Monday 8:00	0.42	-45%	0.3	0.6	detail

Historical-adjusted ratings by season:

Seas	Year	A18-49+	Label	Now24	y2y	Lo	Hi	Premiere	Finale
1	Winter 2003	180	big hit	0.68		137	213	192	213
2	Winter 2004	129	hit	0.49	-28%	101	153	138	153
3	Winter 2005	97	marginal	0.37	-25%	84	123	106	123
4	Summer 2008	77	solid(sum)	0.29		54	112	88	112
5	Summer 2009	87	solid(sum)	0.33	+14%	70	116	100	93
6	Summer 2010	106	big hit(sum)	0.40	+21%	89	135	99	135
7	Summer 2011	96	hit(sum)	0.36	-9%	67	110	110	110
8	Summer 2012	102	hit(sum)	0.39	+6%	80	131	110	131
9	Summer 2013	94	hit(sum)	0.36	-8%	81	123	90	119
10	Summer 2014	92	hit(sum)	0.35	-2%	74	111	106	111
11	Summer 2015	116	big hit(sum)	0.44	+27%	95	149	125	137
12	Summer 2016	134	big hit(sum)	0.51	+15%	96	172	137	158
13	Summer 2017	131	big hit(sum)	0.50	-2%	98	171	147	171
14	Summer 2018	134	big hit(sum)	0.51	+2%	112	166	131	166
15	Summer 2019	162	mega(sum)	0.61	+21%	120	221	142	221
16	Fall 2020	203	megahit	0.77		155	261	213	217
17	Summer 2021	145	mega(sum)	0.55		119	195	152	195
18	Fall 2021	132	hit	0.50	-35%	110	155	155	114
19	Summer 2022	151	mega(sum)	0.57	+4%	139	176	141	176
20	Summer 2023	99	hit(sum)	0.37	-35%	63	131	82	124

For more on The War of 18-49, my look at the history of primetime TV's veteran shows, see the Index.