The War of 18-49, Lost

LOST (ABC) 

Why post this on Wednesday? Four of Lost's six seasons aired on Wednesday, and the show actually aired regularly in all three hours on Wednesday. The show had six regular timeslots in six seasons, also including two hours on Thursday during season 4 and Tuesday at 9:00 for the final season.

See (who saw) how it all began: Lost was the first of four major series premieres in 9 months that would totally reverse the fortunes of an ABC that was slumping after the decline of Millionaire. And while it wasn't as big as the Desperate Housewives premiere a couple weeks later, it was still strong, attracting 18.65 million viewers and a 6.8/20 in the demo. It declined the next couple weeks, but only by small amounts: to a 6.5 in week 2 and a 6.2 in week 3.  Then it bounced right back up to that 6.8 in week 4 and would only drop below the 6.0 mark once in all of season 1.

The best of times: As strong as season 1 was, the clear peak for Lost was in early season 2, when it premiered with 23.47 million viewers and a 10.2/25 in the demo, the show's only double-digit demo ever. Six of the first seven episodes of season 2 broke a 9.0 demo, while no other airing in any season did, and 11 of the first 12 episodes of season 2 broke an 8.0 demo, while just one other airing did.  Are you getting my point yet?!

The worst of times: Lost dropped a lot from its best days, but not as much as the likes of Grey's Anatomy and Desperate Housewives, because while it was never as potent as those two at their peaks, by the very end it was actually a slightly stronger show.  As far as low points, the show dipped below the 4.0 mark on five occasions, including once in season 5 and four times in the last season. The lowest rating was a 3.7 demo on 4/20/10.

Then vs. now: ABC famously announced in 2007, near the end of season 3, that the show would end after 48 episodes across three more seasons. The show was coming off the widely reviled six-episode "pod" and, after a long in-season hiatus, had dropped from a 7.0 before to a 5.7 in the second episode after and was in the low 5's around the time of the announcement. From a ratings standpoint, it seems like a smart decision, as the show's lowest average since then was the 4.46 of the penultimate season, down only about 10-15% from where it was around announcement time. That's a pretty good hold for a serialized drama across more than three seasons, or about two full seasons' worth of episodes. Of course, we'll never know what it would've done without the announcement, but it certainly did better down the stretch than its open-ended peers on ABC. It stayed strong, and it went out strong, and that's probably the best it could've done.

Adults 18-49 info by season:

Seas	Year	Timeslot	Avg	y2y	Lo	Hi	Results	Grade
1	2004-05	Wednesday 8:00	6.89		5.9	8.4	detail
2	2005-06	Wednesday 9:00	7.92	+15%	6.1	10.2	detail
3	2006-07	Wed 9:00, Wed 10:00	5.85	-26%	4.9	7.7	detail
4	2007-08	Thu 9:00, Thu 10:00	5.31	-9%	4.6	6.7	detail
5	2008-09	Wednesday 9:00	4.46	-16%	3.8	5.2	detail
6	2009-10	Tuesday 9:00	4.49	+1%	3.7	5.8	detail

Historical-adjusted ratings by season:

Seas	Year	A18-49+	Label	Now15	y2y	Lo	Hi	Premiere	Finale
1	2004-05	169	big hit	2.84		145	206	167	191
2	2005-06	195	big hit	3.28	+15%	150	251	251	187
3	2006-07	155	big hit	2.61	-20%	130	204	204	157
4	2007-08	161	big hit	2.70	+3%	139	203	203	148
5	2008-09	148	hit	2.50	-8%	126	173	166	146
6	2009-10	160	big hit	2.69	+8%	131	206	195	206
AVERAGE:		165	big hit
CAREER:		988	tentpole

For more on The War of 18-49, my look at the history of primetime TV's veteran shows, see the Index.