The Finale Spike

We're into the last week of sweeps, folks, and that means a lot of season and series finales coming up (and several already in the books). So how far up can you expect the ratings of your favorite show to go when it comes time for the finale?

Well, this post is inspired by the huge finale for Grey's Anatomy last night, which I consider a true stunner. The show had been in the upper 3's down the stretch but then suddenly whips out a 5.4 rating for the finale. Officially, it's up 1.5 points from the 3.9 it pulled last week, a 38% increase, and I thought that seemed extraordinarily high for something that wasn't a big-time historic series finale. So I'm briefly gonna take a look at some of the finale spikes for some other TV shows that I thought might get big finale boosts.

Grey's Anatomy (ABC)
2007-08: penultimate episode 6.1, finale 7.0, spike of 15%
2008-09: penultimate ep 5.4, finale 5.9, spike of 9%
2009-10: penultimate ep 3.9, finale 5.4 (preliminary numbers), spike of 38%

Desperate Housewives (ABC)
2007-08: penultimate ep 5.6, finale 6.2, spike of 11%*
2008-09: penultimate ep 4.1, finale 4.7, spike of 15%*
2009-10: penultimate ep 3.8, finale 4.0, spike of 5%

*- Not that anyone will really care, but I noticed that the penultimate episode in both of these DH seasons was a really low number compared to most other episodes, so these numbers could be construed as kinda artifically high.

Lost (ABC)
2007-08: penultimate ep 4.9, finale 4.9, spike of 0%*
2008-09: penultimate ep 4.0, finale 4.4, spike of 10%
2009-10: penultimate ep 4.3, finale ???

*- pre-finale eps of Lost had aired after Grey's Anatomy at 10pm, and the finale aired outside of the regular season and with a much smaller lead-in, so those are a couple things to keep in mind for this one.

Dancing with the Stars (ABC) (not sure if it's better to compare to the previous results show in the same timeslot or to the competition ep from the night before, so I'm including both, and in parentheses are the respective spikes)
Fall 2007: penultimate results show 5.0, final competition show 6.0, finale 6.4 (+28%, +7%)
Spring 2008: penultimate results show 4.1, final competition show 4.4, finale 5.4 (+32%, +23%)
Fall 2008: penultimate results show 4.0, final competition show 4.7, finale 5.1 (+28%, +9%)
Spring 2009: penultimate results show 3.1, final competition show 5.6, finale 5.2 (+68%, -7%)
Fall 2009: penultimate results show 3.2, final competition show 4.0, finale 4.3 (+34%, +8%)

Survivor (CBS)
Fall 2007: penultimate ep 4.6, finale 5.2, spike of 13%
Spring 2008: penultimate ep 4.1, finale 4.4, spike of 7%
Fall 2008: penultimate ep 4.0, finale 4.4, spike of 10%
Spring 2009: penultimate ep 3.8, finale 4.2, spike of 11%
Fall 2009: penultimate ep 3.9, finale 4.4, spike of 13%
Spring 2010: penultimate ep 4.1, finale 4.2, spike of 2%

The Biggest Loser (NBC)
Fall 2007: penultimate ep 3.6, finale 4.6, spike of 28%
Spring 2008: penultimate ep 3.7, finale 4.4, spike of 19%
Fall 2008: penultimate ep 3.6, finale 4.6, spike of 28%
Spring 2009: penultimate ep 3.6, finale 4.7, spike of 31%
Fall 2009: penultimate ep 3.7, finale 5.0, spike of 35%

ER (NBC)
2007-08: penultimate ep 2.9, finale 3.3, spike of 14%
2008-09: penultimate ep 3.5, finale 6.0, spike of 71%

Included ER here because it was the most recent example I could think of a big-time series finale, something we'll be having with Lost this weekend and to probably a lesser extent with 24 on Monday. The 71% number is the largest one here; can we expect something similar for Lost?

American Idol (Fox)
2008: penultimate results show 9.2, final competition show 10.1, finale 11.4 (+24%, +13%)
2009: penultimate results show 8.7, final competition show 8.6, finale 10.0 (+15%, +16%)

24 (Fox)
2009: penultimate ep 3.2, finale 3.1, spike of -3%*
2010: penultimate ep 2.9, finale ???

*- Losing the House lead-in hurts, but I'd expect the series finale to go up from that 2.9 on Monday night.

House (Fox)
2007-08: penultimate ep 5.9, finale 5.8, spike of -2%
2008-09: penultimate ep 4.6, finale 4.7, spike of 2%
2009-10: penultimate ep 3.6, finale 4.3, spike of 19%

America's Next Top Model (CW)
Fall 2007: penultimate ep 2.3, finale 2.6, spike of 13%
Spring 2008: penultimate ep 2.0, finale 2.2, spike of 10%
Fall 2008: penultimate ep 1.9, finale 2.3, spike of 21%
Spring 2009: penultimate ep 1.7, finale 1.9, spike of 12%
Fall 2009: penultimate ep 1.5, finale 1.8, spike of 20%
Spring 2010: penultimate ep 1.5, finale 1.7, spike of 13%

Notice that what I've included here is mostly reality with a few select "event" type dramas. I don't think there are noticeable spikes on most comedies. Might come back and add to this later (and will certainly fill in some numbers on the above shows that haven't ended this season), but for now I think you get the gist of it. The norm is about a 10-15% spike. The Biggest Loser is perhaps the only show that regularly goes much higher than that. But when it comes to series finale time for a show that has a lot of history and still does at least reasonable business like ER, that number can explode. Can't wait to see what happens for Lost.