First Two Weeks, The Deep End

Before I get into this, a note: my Human Target post will consist of the series premiere and the fourth episode of the show, airing this Wednesday. This has been a tough situation due to the fact that it's aired four episodes in four timeslots, and I'll get into this in a little more detail next week, but suffice to say comparing the first two episodes without any lead-in seems as good an approach as any.

The Deep End (ABC)
Sampling: I have a theory that most of the time has proven true: young skewing + legal = flop. For some reason the young'uns like watching doctors and cops but they don't like watching lawyers, and most recent successes in the legal arena have embraced their old-skewingness. Despite an inundation of ads across the ESPN family of networks (I'm not sure why they were trying to hit the men 18-49 set with their "From the network that brought you Grey's Anatomy ads, but whatever) the latest futile attempt to skew young with a lawyer show hit a 1.8 demo. That's the lowest total for a non-Friday scripted debut on the Big 4 this season. Bad.

Retention: Interestingly, The Deep End became just the second scripted newbie this season to bring all of its A18-49 back for week 2. And the other one was also a legal drama, The Good Wife. The Good Wife grew, and The Deep End was even from week 1. That's made even better by the fact that its mates on the night, Grey's Anatomy and Private Practice, went into reruns last night, although competition was also lighter with NBC going into reruns and CBS debuting a complete bomb of a reality show.

Prognosis: This is that corner case where my system sucks, an awful start and a great retention. Realistically, those two things still equal awful. So while breaking even is enough to guarantee The Deep End a "borderline" prognosis via the system, the reality is something far worse than that. A 1.8 is not going to cut it, even if it keeps getting that 1.8 the whole rest of the way. But it does keep you from completely writing it out of the realm of possibility, especially since Grey's and Private Practice return to originals next week. That's all it has right now. Possibility, not probability. And certainly not a whiff of critical acclaim or other "intangibles." Don't look for this in '10-'11.

SAMPLING
The Vampire Diaries 6.3*
V 5.2
The Cleveland Show 4.9
NCIS: LA 4.4
Cougar Town 4.4
Modern Family 4.2
Flashforward 4.0

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Melrose Place 3.9*
Community 3.8
Life Unexpected 3.6*
Glee 3.5
Accidentally on Purpose 3.3
The Good Wife 3.1
Eastwick 3.0
The Middle 2.6

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The Forgotten 2.6
Mercy 2.3
Trauma 2.2
Hank 2.1
Three Rivers 1.9
The Deep End 1.8
The Beautiful Life: TBL 1.8*
Brothers 1.0

*-Although A18-49 isn't necessarily the "CW demo," in an attempt to put them on a level playing field with the big 4, I've taken the A18-49 premiere number for the CW shows and multiplied it by 3.

RETENTION
The Good Wife +3%
The Deep End even
Accidentally on Purpose -6%
NCIS:LA -7%
Flashforward -8%
Glee -9%
Mercy -9%

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Modern Family -10%
The Cleveland Show -10%
Three Rivers -11%
Cougar Town -14%
The Vampire Diaries -16%
The Beautiful Life: TBL -18%
The Middle -19%
Brothers - 20%

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Trauma -23%
Eastwick -23%
The Forgotten -23%
Life Unexpected -24%
Hank -24%
V -27%
Community -29%
Melrose Place -31%

EXCELLENT (6 points) - NCIS: Los Angeles, Flashforward
GOOD ENOUGH (5 points) - The Vampire Diaries, Cougar Town, Accidentally on Purpose, Glee, The Cleveland Show, The Good Wife, Modern Family
BORDERLINE (4 points) - V, Mercy, The Middle, The Deep End
IN TROUBLE (2-3 points) - Community, TBL:TBL, Eastwick, Three Rivers, Brothers, Life Unexpected, Melrose Place (3 points), The Forgotten, Trauma, Hank (2 points)

If this is your first of my "First Two Weeks" posts, I encourage you to click the "new shows" label and scroll down to the bottom.