As I remarked back then, it's easy to tell which one has a stronger correlation; the demo one. And the eye test is my best way of explaining it, because it's been several years now since my last statistics class. So while I can tell you that the correlation coefficient on the viewer chart is just r = 0.46 and the correlation on the demo chart is r = 0.90, and the strength of that r value has to do with how close you are to 1, I can't really say exactly how much better 0.90 is than 0.46. But it's a lot.
I'll try to make the point in a couple other ways. Still a lot of numbers, but hopefully not advanced statistics.
| Demo | Price | |
| Grey's Anatomy | 5.7 | 240462 |
| Desperate Housewives | 5.3 | 228851 |
| 2.5 Men | 5.1 | 226635 |
| House | 5.1 | 183298 |
| CSI | 4.8 | 198647 |
| DWTS (Monday) | 4.7 | 178687 |
| The Office | 4.3 | 191236 |
| CSI: Miami | 4 | 140065 |
| Survivor | 4 | 152246 |
| Bachelor | 4 | 139500 |
| Family Guy | 4 | 214750 |
| DWTS (Tuesday) | 3.9 | 172570 |
| Private Practice | 3.8 | 175450 |
| NCIS | 3.65 | 133304 |
| Criminal Minds | 3.6 | 116553 |
| The Biggest Loser | 3.6 | 128295 |
| Brothers & Sisters | 3.5 | 140445 |
| CSI: New York | 3.4 | 127941 |
| Simpsons | 3.4 | 201920 |
| Extreme Makeover: Home Edition | 3.3 | 136743 |
| 30 Rock | 3.3 | 159674 |
| Amazing Race | 3.2 | 109736 |
| Celebrity Apprentice | 3.2 | 110283 |
| American Dad | 2.9 | 136388 |
| 60 Minutes | 2.7 | 93772 |
| Bones | 2.7 | 107942 |
| Ghost Whisperer | 2.5 | 78047 |
| Castle | 2.4 | 92700 |
| Parks & Recreation | 2.4 | 119990 |
| Numb3rs | 2.3 | 85007 |
| AFHV | 2.2 | 75893 |
| Gary Unmarried | 2.2 | 79986 |
| Old Christine | 2.1 | 80106 |
| Dollhouse | 1.5 | 56370 |
These are all the points on the demo scatter plot above. As you can see, almost all the shows at the top of the demo ranking are near the top of the price-per-spot list as well. (Family Guy and Simpsons being the most glaring exceptions.) For the most part, as the demo goes down, so does the price.
Now here's the viewer one.
| DWTS (Monday) | 19.6 | 178687 |
| CSI | 18.1 | 198647 |
| NCIS | 17.8 | 133304 |
| DWTS (Tuesday) | 16.2 | 172570 |
| Desperate Housewives | 15.4 | 228851 |
| Grey's Anatomy | 15.2 | 240462 |
| 2.5 Men | 14.9 | 226635 |
| Criminal Minds | 14.4 | 116553 |
| CSI: Miami | 14.1 | 140065 |
| 60 Minutes | 14.1 | 93772 |
| House | 13.4 | 183298 |
| CSI: New York | 13 | 127941 |
| Survivor | 12.5 | 152246 |
| Bachelor | 11.1 | 139500 |
| Amazing Race | 10.5 | 109736 |
| Ghost Whisperer | 10.3 | 78047 |
| Private Practice | 10 | 175450 |
| Brothers & Sisters | 10 | 140445 |
| Extreme Makeover: Home Edition | 10 | 136743 |
| Bones | 9.4 | 107942 |
| Numb3rs | 9.4 | 85007 |
| Castle | 9.3 | 92700 |
| The Biggest Loser | 8.9 | 128295 |
| The Office | 8.4 | 191236 |
| Celebrity Apprentice | 8.2 | 110283 |
| AFHV | 8.1 | 75893 |
| Family Guy | 7.8 | 214750 |
| Simpsons | 7.1 | 201920 |
| Gary Unmarried | 7.1 | 79986 |
| Old Christine | 7.1 | 80106 |
| 30 Rock | 6.9 | 159674 |
| American Dad | 6.2 | 136388 |
| Parks & Recreation | 5.4 | 119990 |
| Dollhouse | 3.7 | 56370 |
Much worse correlation here. Out of 34 shows on the list, eight charge less than $100k for a 30-second spot. All eight of those were in the bottom ten of the demo list. Only four of the eight are in the bottom ten of the viewer list, and The Simpsons/Family Guy, two of the most expensive shows, are near the bottom of the list. NCIS, despite being the third most viewed show, is near the middle of the pack as far as price goes. Difficult to say those shows are being sold even remotely based on their total audience.
Now, here's another way of looking at this. I'll include price per demo point and price per million total viewers.
| Demo | Price/pt | |
| Simpsons | 3.4 | 59388.24 |
| Family Guy | 4 | 53687.5 |
| Parks & Recreation | 2.4 | 49995.83 |
| 30 Rock | 3.3 | 48386.06 |
| American Dad | 2.9 | 47030.34 |
| Private Practice | 3.8 | 46171.05 |
| The Office | 4.3 | 44473.49 |
| 2.5 Men | 5.1 | 44438.24 |
| DWTS (Tuesday) | 3.9 | 44248.72 |
| Desperate Housewives | 5.3 | 43179.43 |
| Grey's Anatomy | 5.7 | 42186.32 |
| Extreme Makeover: Home Edition | 3.3 | 41437.27 |
| CSI | 4.8 | 41384.79 |
| Brothers & Sisters | 3.5 | 40127.14 |
| Bones | 2.7 | 39978.52 |
| Castle | 2.4 | 38625 |
| Old Christine | 2.1 | 38145.71 |
| Survivor | 4 | 38061.5 |
| DWTS (Monday) | 4.7 | 38018.51 |
| CSI: New York | 3.4 | 37629.71 |
| Dollhouse | 1.5 | 37580 |
| Numb3rs | 2.3 | 36959.57 |
| NCIS | 3.65 | 36521.64 |
| Gary Unmarried | 2.2 | 36357.27 |
| House | 5.1 | 35940.78 |
| The Biggest Loser | 3.6 | 35637.5 |
| CSI: Miami | 4 | 35016.25 |
| Bachelor | 4 | 34875 |
| 60 Minutes | 2.7 | 34730.37 |
| AFHV | 2.2 | 34496.82 |
| Celebrity Apprentice | 3.2 | 34463.44 |
| Amazing Race | 3.2 | 34292.5 |
| Criminal Minds | 3.6 | 32375.83 |
| Ghost Whisperer | 2.5 | 31218.8 |
| Viewers | Price/mil | |
| Simpsons | 7.1 | 28439.44 |
| Family Guy | 7.8 | 27532.05 |
| 30 Rock | 6.9 | 23141.16 |
| The Office | 8.4 | 22766.19 |
| Parks & Recreation | 5.4 | 22220.37 |
| American Dad | 6.2 | 21998.06 |
| Private Practice | 10 | 17545 |
| Grey's Anatomy | 15.2 | 15819.87 |
| Dollhouse | 3.7 | 15235.14 |
| 2.5 Men | 14.9 | 15210.4 |
| Desperate Housewives | 15.4 | 14860.45 |
| The Biggest Loser | 8.9 | 14415.17 |
| Brothers & Sisters | 10 | 14044.5 |
| House | 13.4 | 13678.96 |
| Extreme Makeover: Home Edition | 10 | 13674.3 |
| Celebrity Apprentice | 8.2 | 13449.15 |
| Bachelor | 11.1 | 12567.57 |
| Survivor | 12.5 | 12179.68 |
| Bones | 9.4 | 11483.19 |
| Old Christine | 7.1 | 11282.54 |
| Gary Unmarried | 7.1 | 11265.63 |
| CSI | 18.1 | 10974.97 |
| DWTS (Tuesday) | 16.2 | 10652.47 |
| Amazing Race | 10.5 | 10451.05 |
| Castle | 9.3 | 9967.742 |
| CSI: Miami | 14.1 | 9933.688 |
| CSI: New York | 13 | 9841.615 |
| AFHV | 8.1 | 9369.506 |
| DWTS (Monday) | 19.6 | 9116.684 |
| Numb3rs | 9.4 | 9043.298 |
| Criminal Minds | 14.4 | 8093.958 |
| Ghost Whisperer | 10.3 | 7577.379 |
| NCIS | 17.8 | 7488.989 |
| 60 Minutes | 14.1 | 6650.496 |
I know this post is in severe danger of becoming too numbers-laden, but here's the point I'm trying to make. The Simpsons is the most expensive show per demo point and it charges not even twice what Ghost Whisperer, the cheapest show, charges. The average price per demo point is right around $40k , and 32 of 34 shows charge within 25% of the average demo price (between $30k and $50k) with only the animation tentpoles being outside of that range. 21 of 34 shows are in an even closer range of 12.5% (between $35k and $45k).
On the other hand, The Simpsons, also the most expensive show per-viewer, charges well over four times what cheapest-per-viewer 60 Minutes charges per viewer. If we're trying to say viewers sell advertising, the average price on this chart would be about $14k. Using the previous benchmarks, just 17 of 34 shows are within 25% of the viewer price and only 10 of 34 are within 12.5%. The viewer correlation with ad rates is much weaker.
I can't really think of any other ways to drill it home, so in conclusion: the demo matters a lot, and it matters a lot more than viewers. The correlation is not as exact as something you might hope for in an actual scientific study, due to other demographics and perhaps some speculation being factored in, but it's a heckuva lot closer than the viewer correlation, and anything you could say to diss the correlation between demo averages and ad rates would have to go at least double for the viewership chart. If there's one number that we as industry outsiders trolling around on the Internet can look at to find a connection with advertising money, it's adults 18-49.
But, sayeth the CBS lover, maybe it's viewers and demos! Well, if that's true, then demos are still much more important, and that's being generous. And considering some of the most "overpaid" shows relative to their demos are shows with very low viewership (especially The Simpsons and Family Guy, but to a lesser extent stuff like The Office and 30 Rock), it would seem the opposite is more likely to be true: that given two shows of about the same demo, having fewer viewers helps. I'll look at that question in an upcoming post about "skew." And I'll also look at the urban legend that "CBS sells total viewers." Not sure, with only three data points, if I'll have enough to tackle the "Total viewers sell on Friday" urban legend, but we'll see.
1 comment:
Purely speculation, but...
Perhaps the Simpsons/Family Guy anomaly comes from a disproportionate number of younger viewers within the 18-49 demo. The 09/10 season of Family Guy has a 4.4 rating in the 18-49 demo but a 5.6 in 18-34. NCIS, on the other hand, has an 18-34 rating that's LOWER than its 18-49 rating. Clearly a younger crowd is watching Family Guy (but we already knew that).
It's your late teens to mid-thirties when you're buying "big ticket items" (erm, compared to Sargento cheese and Subway sandwiches, at least). That age group is applying for credit cards, buying computers when they go to college, buying their first cars (not to mention insurance...annoying ads), replacing cell phones every year or so, etc. Not only that, but surely they recognize that those in college (and fresh-out-of) have one hand in their own piggybank and the other in their parents'.
Post a Comment