First Two Weeks, V

V (ABC)
Sampling: The largest demo for a series premiere to date this season. 5.2 demo. That's right up there with regular episodes of House and Grey's Anatomy. Lots of things were written about its historical significance; largest premiere for an ABC drama since Private Practice in 2007. Largest for an 8:00 drama since Lost in 2004. A big, big start.
Retention: The dropoff was expected, and maybe even more than expected. At a 27% decline, it's the largest A18-49 week 2 fall for a drama this season, and second among all shows only to Community. (The 31% drop for Melrose below is in W18-34; Melrose fell "only" 23% in A18-49.) The drop is very much on par with the week 2 drop for NBC's 2007 remake of The Bionic Woman, which was 28% (5.7 -> 4.1)
Prognosis: There's almost nothing harder to predict than something that premieres huge and drops huge. If it stays at its week 2 3.8 demo, it's a big success for ABC, but that just doesn't seem likely to happen to me. Huge premiere + huge drop = borderline by the below system, and that's about right. Could really go any way, but when the drop is this big, that's what I focus on. I'm saying this finds a way to not get to season 2. We shall see.


SAMPLING
The Vampire Diaries 6.3*
V 5.2
The Cleveland Show 4.9
NCIS: LA 4.4
Cougar Town 4.4
Modern Family 4.2
Flashforward 4.0

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Melrose Place 3.9*
Community 3.8
Glee 3.5
Accidentally on Purpose 3.3
The Good Wife 3.1
Eastwick 3.0
The Middle 2.6

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The Forgotten 2.6
Mercy 2.3
Trauma 2.2
Hank 2.1
Three Rivers 1.9
The Beautiful Life: TBL 1.8*
Brothers 1.0

*-Although A18-49 isn't necessarily the "CW demo," in an attempt to put them on a level playing field with the big 4, I've taken the A18-49 premiere number for the CW shows and multiplied it by 3.

RETENTION
The Good Wife +3%
Accidentally on Purpose -6%
NCIS:LA -7%
Flashforward -8%
Glee -9%
Mercy -9%
Modern Family -10%

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The Cleveland Show -10%
Three Rivers -11%
Cougar Town -14%
The Vampire Diaries -16%
The Beautiful Life: TBL -18%
The Middle -19%
Brothers - 20%

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Trauma -23%
Eastwick -23%
The Forgotten -23%
Hank -24%
V -27%
Community -29%
Melrose Place -31%

EXCELLENT (6 points) - NCIS: Los Angeles, Flashforward, Modern Family
GOOD ENOUGH (5 points) - The Vampire Diaries, Cougar Town, Accidentally on Purpose, Glee, The Cleveland Show, The Good Wife
BORDERLINE (4 points) - V, Mercy, The Middle
IN TROUBLE (2-3 points) - Community, Melrose Place, TBL:TBL, Eastwick, Three Rivers, Brothers (3 points), The Forgotten, Trauma, Hank (2 points)

If this is your first of my "First Two Weeks" posts, I encourage you to click the "new shows" label and scroll down to the bottom.